Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/09/16

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 09 - 15.09.2019,
                 Forecast on 16 - 23.09.2019,
   Carrington Rotation 2021, 2222 (22,9.08; 19,16.09.2019)   
            Earth out of ecliptic (6.8 - 7.15) deg. 
           (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A
SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK (181 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR). ESTI-
MATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 
(Wn = 0).  

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=
010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FLARE "A" 
CLASS (12.09), ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION (11.09) AND ONE CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTIONS (11.08) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
05.09 >0043   >1328  S54W26L136      5
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R G  Space Obser.
CH +  N05L050 S12L065 S19L060 S00L050 >1%  15-16.09 2 -  SDO 
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REFLECTED A NOMINAL SOLAR WIND ENVIRONEMENT.

AFTER 04.08/0855 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE 
AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT THE EARTH HAS PASSED THE SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- 15.09/1710 UT, BUT NO 
CONFIRMATION YET. THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO PASS 16.09.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
SEPTEMBER 09     10     11     12     13     14     15    SEPTEMBER
Wus      000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7    069    070    068    069    068    069    068 
bcg    3.8   4.0   4.0   3.9   A3.7   A3.5   3.5    GOES
Sp       020    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                                   
IMF       +      +      ~      +      +      +    ++/-    DSCOVR   
>2   1.8E+8 3.1E+8 3.4E+8 1.5E+8 9.6E+7 1.6E+8 1.0+8    GOES
Ie>2    9362   8013   6722  5279    2656   3102   5476    pfu 
Ap        14     4      5     7       8      6      10    n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc      14     4      5     6       7      5      9     n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 6.08/1015 UT AND 2-16.09 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY  TO BE  QUITE AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov