Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/10/21

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 14 - 20.10.2019,
                 Forecast on 21 - 28.10.2019,
   Carrington Rotation 2022, 2223 (19,16.09; 16,44.10.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (6.3 - 5.8) deg. 
            (S20 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK ALL DAYS (217 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 74%). 
ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W=0 (Wn=0).  

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND FIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (14-15.09 - W-limb) HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R G  Space Obser.
CH -  N08L328 S25L344 S40L322 S02L321  1.9% 20.10 6  -  SDO, SOHO...
CH +  N45L306 N28L326 S28L309 N10L279 11.2% 25.10 5 G2  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR WIND PARAMENERS WERE AT BACKGROUND LEVELS THIS PERIOD UNDER A NO-
MINAL SOLAR WIND REGIME.

 23.09/09 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE, BUT IN 
THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+". THE NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY THE EARTH MUST TO 
PASS 24.10.
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
OCTOBER  14     15     16     17     18     19     20   OCTOBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   066    067    066    066    066    066    065 
bcg   3.8   4.3   5.7   6.3   A6.4   A6.5   6.4   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                   
IMF      +      +      +      +      +      +      +     DSCOVR   
>2  4.0E+7 1.0E+7 5.5E+6 7.2E+6 8.6E+6 8.5E+6 5.3+6   GOES
Ie>2    777    288     223    126   158    230    125   pfu 
Ap       6      5       7      5     6      5      6    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     5      4       6      6     6      6      6    n IZMIRAN 
---------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT 
 OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 26.09.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK 24-25.09 THE EARTH WILL PASS A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A RE-
CURRENT EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY WITH CHARACTERISTICS AL-
LOWING ITS GEOEFFICIENCY.  THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 
IS AT LEAST 40%. IN OTHER DAYS THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED 
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov