Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/05/20

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 13 - 19.05.2019,
                 Forecast on 20 - 27.05.2019,
            Carrington Rotation 2217 (06,0.05.2019)    
            Earth out of ecliptic (-4.7 - -4.4) deg. 
             (S25 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW 
LEVELS AND AFTER 19.05 THE SOLAR DISC BECAME SPOTLESS (75 SPOT-
LESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 8+6/-8 (Wn= 13+3/-13). TWO SUNSPOT 
GROUP IN NORTH HEMISPHERE ON SOLAR VISIBLE DISC HAVE BEEN OBSER-
VED. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL,
AND THE SUN EXPECTED BE SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE 
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL  SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL WAS 15.05 AND VERY LOW - 
IN OTHER DAYS. NO FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND MORE 5 CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to     te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
 +  N30L202 N20L207 N10L202 N20L182  <2.7% 20.05 R1  -  SDO, SOHO...
CH -  S05L214 S12L222 S25L220 S15L202  <5.9% 21.05 R6  -  SDO, SOHO...
Both CH "friable" and with high probability not geoeffective;
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 23.04/22 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.05.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
      13     14     15     16     17     18     19   
Wus     023    024    013    013    013    011    000
F10.7   075    074    074    074    072    071    068
bcg   8.8   8.7   8.9   A8.3   8.0   7.9   7.3   GOES
Sp      160    170    150    150    150    140    000  msh   
N                                                   
IMF      -      -      -      -      -     -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  2.5E+8 1.1E+7 3.9E+7 3.4+7 1.8+7 1.8E+7 2.0+7   GOES
Ie>2  13474   1485   1254  1153    750    468    605   pfu 
Ap       6      36     6     8      5      5      3    n  
Dst     -23    -56    -33   -12                        n KIOTO
Amsc     7      25     7     8      5      5      3    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 
11/1645 UT AND OBSERVED 11-16.05.  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINED QUIET AND UN-
SETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT 14.05. AT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 14.05 THE 
DISTURBATION  FROM THE SERIES  OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 10 - 11.05 
HAS COME IN THE EARTH'S ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTING WITH OTHER, ACCE-
LERATED. COMING TO THE NEAR-EARTH SPACE IN THE FORM OF SINGLE DISTUR-
BANCE, ITS CAUSED 14.05 A VERY INTENSE 9-hour SUBSTORM (G3) ACCORDING 
TO THE DATA OF THE BOULDER CENTER AND 6-hour SUBSTORM ACCORDING IZMI-
RAN DATA.   

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov