Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2018/06/11

-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2018 HAS MADE 
                 Wmay. = 8.0        13.2(n) 
THAT GIVES FOR 106 MONTHS (2017, NOVEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT  
24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*nov. = 9.2       15.4 - in new system
              W*oct. = 10.0      16.7 - in new system 

 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE     -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  IV - X 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2018, 
MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

 1..  0m    6.. 15   11.. 11    16..  0m   21.. 11   26.. 27   31.. 22
 2..  0m    7.. 14   12.. 13    17..  0m   22.. 13   27.. 36M
 3..  0m    8.. 20   13.. 12    18..  0m   23.. 28   28.. 19
 4.. 13     9.. 23   14..  0m   19..  0m   24.. 35   29.. 23
 5.. 14    10.. 11   15..  0m   20..  0m   25.. 30   30.. 20
      
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
MAY 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, NOVEMBER
               F10.7may = 70.8           F*10.7nov.= 74.6 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2018 AND 
SMOOTHES ON 2017, NOVEMBER
               Ap may. = 7.16               Ap*nov. = 9.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 02 - 10.06.2018,
                  Forecast on 11 - 18.06.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2004 (16,45.05.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.5 - -0.3) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON LOW AND VERY
LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE 
OF  THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 004+008/-004 (Wn=006 +013/-006). ON 
THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN, 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY   
AND LOW LEVELS.  LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL 06.05 AND VERY LOW IN
OTHER DAYS. THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 1 CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
06.06 >1316  >0431  N27E25L045       9 
09.06  0709   0744  S49W23L353       6                     
09.06 >1536  >0517  S54E21L051       6  
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -    S02L025 S20L060 S30L040 S04L020       12.06  R6   SOHO,STEREO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 30.05/1800 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.06.

JUNE    02     03     04     05     06     07     08     09     10 JUNE
Wus    020    016    011    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7  074    076    071    071    071    069    068    067    070
bcg  5.0   4.4   4.1    4.2  2.8  <A1.0  <A1.0  <A1.0   A1.0 GOES
Sp     030    010    010    000    000    000    000    000    000 msh   
N                                        
IMF     -      -      -      -     -/+     ~      ~      ~      ~ DSCOVR   
>2 7.4E+8 7.9E+8 9.1E+8 6.9+8 6.7+8 8.4E+7 7.3E+7 7.8E+7 7.1E+8 GOES
Ie>2 28659  26889  22123    579  19491   6304   2574   2016   1939 pfu 
Ap      17     9      5      6      7      6      4      4      3  n  
Dst                                                               n KIOTO
Amsc    14     9      5      6      7      7      5      4      4 n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN- 
NING AT 01/1610 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 01 - 10.06.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 11 - 13.06.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 31, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF
BOULDER CENTER AND (G0, Ams= 27, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DA-
TA WAS REGISTERED 1-2 JUNE, AS RESULT PASSING OF HIGH SPEED STREAM
FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

 THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMA-
RILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov