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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/03/20

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2017,
                 Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2017,
            Carrington Rotation 2188 (6,06.03.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-7.2, -7,0) deg. 
               (S35-N20 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WAS ON A VERY LOW LEVEL AND ALL DAYS WERE 
SPOTLESS DAYS (25 IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W=0 (Wn=0). 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY LOW AND  
LOW LEVELS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE 
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  (old) FOR THE 
NEXT WEEK IS W= 020+10/-20. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI-
ONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO AND STEREO 
CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 5 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
15.03 >0925  >2308   N16W52L294      5  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R G   Space Obser.
CH  +  N30L299 N28L289  N05L297 N28L304        14.03 1  G0  SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  S15L280 S22L268  S28L270 S20L282        16.03 1  G1  SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  S02L194 S15L189  S18L201 S13L203        21.03 1      SDO, SOHO..
CH  +  N20L166 S33L158  S25L173 S25L183 94900  22.03 6  G1  SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 15.03/0000 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY  +/- THE EARTH HAS EXPECTED TO 
PASS 27.03.

MARCH    13     14     15     16     17     18     19     MARCH
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7   070    070    070    071    071    070    071 
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <A1.0     GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                    
IMF      -      -      +      +      +      +      +         
>2  1.4+8 4.3+8 1.1E+8 9.2E+6 1.9E+7 3.4+7 3.8+7     GOES
Ie>2   5433   8795   5795   1352    360    805    865   pfu 
Ap       2      4      5      5      3      2      2    n BOULDER 
Dst                                                     n KIOTO 
Amsc     4      5      8      5      4      2      3    n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINING AT 02.03/0440 UT AND OBSERVED 02 - 16.03.   

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 28.03.

ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION EXPECTED ACTIVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY 
OF GROWTH UP TO THE LEVEL OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM  DUE THE PASSAGE 
BY EARTH OF  THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM  FROM RECURRENT TRANS-
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY.  PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM 
NOT LESS 60%. FOR OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET 
AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                                V. Ishkov