Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2018/04/16

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 09 - 15.04.2018,
                Forecast on 16 - 23.04.2018,
   Carrington Rotation 2002, 2003 (22.94.03; 19,22.04.2018)
           Earth out of ecliptic (-3.3 - -2.8) deg. 
           (S28 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL,
THE VISIBLE DISK WAS SPOTLESS 9-12 AND 15.04 (64d. ON THE CUR-
RENT YEAR). 13.04 NEAR EAST LIMB (E51)  THE SMALL SUNSPOT GRO-
UP WAS FORMED (THE ACTIVE REGION WAS FORMED BY 11.04). THE ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE PERIOD 
W=003+5/-3 (Wn=005+8/-5).  ON THE VISIBLE DISK IT WAS OBSERVED 
ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT 10-11.
04 ON ALL SURFACE OF THE SUN,  THE IMPULSE OF FORMATION OF AC-
TIVE REGIONS WAS OBSERVED.  10.04  ON DISTANCE ~90 deg. TO THE 
EAST  ON THE SAME HELIOLATITUDE  IT WAS FORMED SMALL AR. 11.04. 
ALONG WITH AR OF THE VISIBLE HEMISPHERE ON DISTANCE OF 120 deg. 
ON THE EAST AT THE SAME HELIOLATITUDE IT WAS FORMED SIMILAR BY 
THE SIZES TO FIRST AR, IT IS POSSIBLE WITH SUNSPOTS. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WILL BE ON THE VERY 
LOW LEVEL AND SUN IS EXPECTED SPOTLESS WITH HIGH LIKELY. LIKE-
LY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.  

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS ON PERIOD. NO EJECTA 
OF SOLAR FILAMENTS AND FIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (11, 14 -15.
04) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     
        to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
  +  N15L217 N12L223  S10L167 S05L160 31400 10.04   6  G0 SOHO,SDO...
  -  N20L050 N17L090  S35L050 N10L002       17.04   4  G0 SOHO,SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 12.04/0430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 25.04.

    09     10     11     12     13     14     15   
Wus      000    000    000    013    014    011    000 
F10.7    069    069    068    070    070    070    071 
bcg   <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   1.9   2.1   2.0   1.9   GOES
Sp       000    000    000    030    030    000    000   msh   
N                                                   
IMF       +      +      +    +/-     ~/-    -/~    ~/-   DSCOVR   
>2   6.0E+6 4.2E+7 3.2E+8 8.0+8 4.9+8 3.5+8 2.3+8   GOES
Ie>2     301   1937  10905  22185  25451  20707   8310   pfu 
Ap        10     16     16     9      9      6      5    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      9      14     11     10     11     5      6    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS 
BEGAN AT 10.04/0430 UT AND OBSERVED 10.03 - 16.04.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 16 - 23.04.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE (10 - 11.04) AND UNSETTLED IN 
OTHER DAYS.   

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION SHOULD BE ACTIVE (17-19.04)
AND UNSETTLED IN OTHER DAYS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov