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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/10/23

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      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 16 - 22.10.2017,
                 Forecast on 23 - 30.10.2017,
           Carrington Rotation 2196 (10.01.10.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (6.2 - 5,5) deg. 
              (S25 - N35 is geoeffectiveness zone)

 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL (UNTIL 21.10;
68 SPOTLESS DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WE-
EKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 002+6/-2 (Wn = 003+09/-3). 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP (NEXT ROTANION 
AR12682) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK  LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY  WILL REMAIN AT THE 
LOW LEVEL AND WILL BE DEFINED BY TWO ACTIVE REGIONS APPEARANCE TO 
THE VISIBLE DISK. MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI-
VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT 
WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10.  

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 20.10 WHEN IN THE SUN-
SPOT GROUP ON THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OCCURRENCES A FLARE OF THE 
MIDDLE X-RAY CLASS. 18.10/<0534 UT ON SOLAR BACK SIDE IN NOTHERN 
ACTIVE REGION (AR12683 ON PREVIOUS ROTATION) WAS OCCURENCE LARGE 
2-ribbons FLARE, PRESUMABLE IMPORTANCE 3B. ON EAST LIMB IT COULD 
CORRESPOND LONG (>3.5 h.) X-ray BIRST (B2.4). THE FLARE EVENT WAS 
FOLLOWED BY THE THE DYNAMIC PHENOMENA IN OPTICAL (CME) AND IN RA-
DIO BIRSTS II AND IV TYPES. IN OTHER DAYS THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS 
AT VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE WAS ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCUR-
RENCES ON THIS PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO 
CORONOGRAPHS >14 CME, ONE -TYPE II (angular with 90-180 deg.) HA-
VE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
18.10 0818 1031 >1145 S07E90L127 B2.4/~3B        12685 II/2-0539 CME/0548
                                                       IV/1 - 0537-0600
20.10 2310 2328 >2337 S12E88L127 M1.1/    8.8E-3 12685 II/1  CME/0000
                                 
DSF     to      te        l  .  Fl    A    CME/to
17.10 >1501 >0809  N06W64L318        6
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE FROM VERY LOW TO THE MIDDLE
AND IN CASE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NEW MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE IN ACTIVE 
REGIONS - HIGH LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  +  N55L281 N25L276  N20L281 N30L289       18.10  1     SDO, SOHO...
CH  -  N05L218 S20L233  S31L243 S15L253       21.10  5 G0  SDO, SOHO...
CH  +  N43L187 N30L182  N15L194 N10L217       23.10  5 G1  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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 10.10/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. 21 AND 22.10 SIGN OF THE SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. NEXT 
SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 30.10.

OCTOBER   16     17     18     19     20     21     22    OCTOBER
Wus      000    000    000    000    000    011    013 
F10.7    071    070    073    073    076    077    077
bcg    3.4   4.1   A5.7   A5.3   A6.6   A7.8   A7.4      GOES
Sp       000    000    000    000    000    050    070  msh   
N                                            1         
IMF       +      +      +      +      +      ~      ~       DSCOVR   
>2    1.2+9 2.6+9 2.9E+9 2.1+8 2.5+7 8.6+7 9.1+6      GOES
Ie>2   36944  56839  55588  38618    851   3951    215   pfu 
Ap        9      5      4      12     9      10     6    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      8      7      5      17     8      10     6    n IZMIRAN 
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>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BE-
GIN 12.10/1350 UT AND 12-19.10 AND 21 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 25 - 30.10.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 
19.10 (ACTIVE) WHEN BY DATA OF IZMIRAN HAS BEEN NOTED THE SUBSTORM 
(G1) BY DURATION <6 h - THE TRACE OF EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-
SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. 
  
 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL 
DAYS, EXCEPT 24 - 26.10, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
FROM CORONAL HOLES "+" POLARITY ON NORTHEN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF 
THE MAGNETIC STORM (G1) ~ 60%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov