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Solar Activity Forecast

2017/01/16

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 09 - 15.01 2016,
                 Forecast on 16 - 23.01.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2185, 2186 (14,05.12.2016; 10,39.01.2017)
           Earth above the ecliptic (-3.9, - 4,6) deg. 
                (S34-N26 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS CHANGED FROM A VERY LOW TO THE LOW LEVELS  
AND 9-11.01 WERE SPOTLESS DAYS - 2017 total: 10 days (77%). THE ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD IS W =12+3/-12 (Wn =20+4/ 
-20). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN 0-2 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUP 
WAS OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE LOW LEVEL. THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE  INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AT 112.01 AND AT THE LOW -  IN 
OTHER DAYS.  THERE WERE ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION  OCCURRENCES THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE SOHO  AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 7 CMEs 
ONE - OF II-TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN  OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                  X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te      l  . Fl     A        CME/to
12.01 <1554   >1641  N05E89L254       ?   C3.8   12625    CME/1624/II 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch   EE   R G  Space Obser.
H  +  N05L030 N00L025  S10L028 S00L000 12700  11.01     G1  SDO, SOHO..
H  +  N45L334 N28L317  N18L339 N18L333  3800  14.01  >7 GO  SDO, SOHO..
H  +  N50L309 N35L284  N28L311 N30L317  4800  18.01  >7 G1  SDO, SOHO..
H  +  N40L284 N10L282  N07L289 N05L297        18.01  >7 G1  SDO, SOHO..
H  +  S00L284 S25L241  S29L256 S10L294 48900  19.01     G1  SDO, SOHO..
4 last CH - the family of South pole polar coronal hole;
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A -  active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 12.01/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 30.01.

JANUARY  09     10     11     12     13     14     15      JANUARY
Wus     000    000    000    011    024    025    023
F10.7   071    073    075    076    075    077    078 
bcg   5.5   6.2   8.3   8.5   6.5   6.4   6.9      GOES
Sp      000    000    000    030    070    190    180   msh   
N                             1      1                 
IMF      -     ~       -     -/+     ~      ~     +           
>2  1.4+9 9.4+8 3.0E+8 3.2E+8 2.1E+8 1.5+8 1.2+8      GOES
Ie>2  42125  36708   8687   7626  7916    4185   3432   pfu 
Ap       14     9      6      4     4       4      5    n BOULDER 
Dst                                                     n KIOTO 
Amsc     14     10     9      5     4       4      5    n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING 5/1520 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 13.01. 

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 18 - 23.01.

ALL DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

 ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING 17 - 21.01, WHEN THE  
EARTH BE HELD HIGH SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM FAMILY OF POLAR CORONAL 
HOLES OF POSITIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT
45%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru