Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/01/22

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 15- 21.01.2018,
               Forecast on 22 - 29.01.2018,
Carrington Rotation 2199, 2200 (30,94.12.2017; 27,28.01.2018)
          Earth above the ecliptic (0.0 - -0.7) deg. 
             (S30 - N30 is geoeffectiveness zone)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL AND THE SUN 
WAS SPOTLESS 20-21.01 (8 DAYS - IN 2018).  THE ESTIMATED, MOST 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 005+4/-5 (Wn 
= 008+4/-8). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ONE SMALL AND QUITE SUN-
SPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WITH HIGH PROBABILITY 
WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. WITH A GRATE PROBABILITY, WE ARE 
WAITING FOR THE NEXT WEEK  OF THE SPOTLESS SUN.  LIKELY  WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 010+10/-10.  

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE EJECTION OF 
SOLAR FILAMENT AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
15.01 >2302   >1526  S09E18L167       5           12696
16.01 >2340   >1445  N17E43L179      10  
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N21L184 N05L194  N01L189 N09L164 31700  20.01  3 G0  SDO, SOHO...
Last CH - from south polar CH family.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 18.01/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD BE PASSED 0N 28.01.

    15     16     17     18     19     20     21    
Wus      012    013    012    012    011    000    000
F10.7    070    071    071    071    071    070    068
bcg    3.3   3.5   A3.5   A3.6   A3.2   A3.1   A2.9      GOES
Sp       020    030    020    010    010    000    000   msh   
N         1                                          
IMF      ~/+     +     +       +     ~/+    +/-    -       DSCOVR   
>2   3.4E+6 4.8E+6 6.5E+6 9.4+6 9.8+5 1.6+5 2.1E+5     GOES
Ie>2     111    138    129    273    216                  pfu 
Ap        10     4      2      2      6      8      10    n  
Dst                                                       n KIOTO
Amsc      9      5      2      3      5      7      12    n IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS NOT 
OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 16-20.01.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IN THE PERIOD.  

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND  QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov