Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/08/13

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 06 - 12.08.2018,
                 Forecast on 13.07 - 20.08.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2006 (09,9.07.2018) 
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - +0.2) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL:
THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (131 DAYS IN CURRENT YEAR) ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn= 000). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW LE-
VELS. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION
AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  N08L315 S10L346  S15L321 S00L308       12.08  R2     SDO, ACE...
CH  -  N21L266 S12L278  S15L273 N10L253       15.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
CH  +  Pn      N45L318  S15L321 S00L308       16.08  R1     SDO, ACE...
Last two CH may be the parts of one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 10.08/1620 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD HOWEVER THE WHOLE PERIOD THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR REPEATDLY 
CHANGED. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 13.08.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
AUGUST  06     07     08     09     10     11     12   AUGUST
Wus    000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7  069    070    070    070    070    067    068
bcg  1.2   1.2   1.3   1.1    1.2  1.1   1.0  GOES
Sp     000    000    000    000    000    000    000  msh   
N                                        
IMF     +      +      +      +     +/-      -     -   DSCOVR   
>2 2.2E+6 7.4E+5 6.0+5 1.1E+6 1.5+6 6.2+5 5.5E+5  GOES
Ie>2                      background                  pfu 
Ap      6      9      4      4      3     11       5   n  
Dst                                                   n KIOTO
Amsc    4      9      5      4      4     15       7  n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVEN'T 
BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15.08.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS.

THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov