Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/12/02

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2019 HAS MADE 
              Wnov. = 0.3         0.5(n)  
THAT GIVES FOR 124 MONTH (2019, MAY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*may  = 2.3        3.9 -   
              W*apr. = 2.6        4.3 -   
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE     -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2020;
OTHER SC FORECAST:
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)            -   December 2019;
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr   -  October 2018;
NOAA                         - February 2019.
The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low 
SCs were not observed.
The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 
2019) can be seen  http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER (IN NEW SYSTEM) 
FOR 2019, NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 65 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
      1..  6M   6..  0   11..  0   16..  0   21..  0   26..  0
      2..  2    7..  0   12..  0   17..  0   22..  0   27..  0
      3..  0    8..  0   13..  3   18..  0   23..  0   28..  0
      4..  4    9..  0   14..  0   19..  0   24..  0   29..  0
      5..  0   10..  0   15..  0   20..  0   25..  0   30..  0
Minimum : 0 on 3, 5, 6-12, 14-30.11

[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) 
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
   
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
NOVEMBER 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, MAY
               F10.7nov. = 70.2           F*10.7may= 69.6 
               
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON NOVEMBER 2019, AND SMOOT-
HES ON 2019, MAY
               Ap nov. = 4                 Ap*may = 6.7
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      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on  25.11 - 02.12.2019,
                 Forecast on 02 - 09.12.2019,
            Carrington Rotation 2223 (16,44.10.2019)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (3.7 - 3.2) deg. 
            (S20 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW WITH A SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK (255 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 76%). ESTIMATED,  
MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 0 (Wn=0). 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI-
KELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (20.11) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
 
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
CH -  S05L197 S25L217 S40L192 S10L187  6.1% 27.11   1  -  SDO, SOHO...
CH -  N18L122 N00L137 S12L127 N08L104  4.2% 02.12   1  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
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 25.11/09 - 30.11/03 UT THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD SIGN IS UN
STABLE, BUT IN THE AVERAGE ARE REMAINED "+", AFTER - "-".  THE  NEXT 
PERIOD SECTOR BOUNDARY REMAINED UNSTABLE.
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NOVEMBER 25     26     27     28     29     30     01   DECEMBER
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000
F10.7   070    070    072    070    070    070    071 
bcg   8.2   8.0   7.1   A7.8   A7.8   7.9   A7.8   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N                                                 
IMF     -/+     +      +      +      +     +/-     -    DSCOVR   
>2  8.8E+7 1.1E+8 8.6E+7 4.1E+7 2.3E+7 1.5E+7 5.4E+7   GOES
Ie>2   2203   2713   1932   1290    695    504   1919   pfu 
Ap       5      3      4      4      5      5      11   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc     5      2      4      4      5      4      13   n IZMIRAN 
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>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
24.11/1542 UT AND 24-28.11 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES  REMAINS  UNSETTLED 
AND QUIET ALL DAYS.

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET  AND WEAKLY GROUNDED GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov