Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2020/04/06

THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2020 HAS MADE 
              Wmar. = 0.9^            1.5(n)  
THAT GIVES FOR 128 MONTH (2019, SEPTEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*sep. = 1.9       3.5 - new system
              W*aug. = 2.1       3.1 - new system
^- premiliminary, no data from Boulder center.
 On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE     -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) -  I - VI 2020;
OTHER SC FORECAST:
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)            -   December 2019;
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.;
NOAA                         - December 2019.
The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low 
SCs were not observed.

The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 
2019) can be seen  http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for MARCH 2020 
(68 observatories) : 
  1..  0    6..  0   11..  0   16..  0   21..  0   26..  0   31.. 12
  2..  0    7..  0   12..  0   17..  0   22..  0   27..  0
  3..  0    8.. 15  13..  0   18..  3   23..  0   28..  0
  4..  0    9.. 12   14..  0   19..  0   24..  0   29..  0
  5..  0   10..  0   15..  0   20..  0   25..  0   30..  4
Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 
              20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29

[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) 
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
   
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
MARCH 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER
               F10.7mar. = 69.5           F*10.7sep.= xx.x 
               
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2020, AND SMOOT-
HES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER
               Ap mar. = 5.6                 Ap*sep. =x.x
-------------------------------------------------------------------

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 30.03 - 05.04.2020,
                   Forecast on 06 - 13.04.2020,
            Carrington Rotations 2229 (28,37.03.2020)   
            Earth out of ecliptic (-6.5 - -6.1) deg. 
            (S35 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 30.03 AND 5.04 (71 SPOT-
LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 6+2/-6 (Wn=10+3/-10). ONE SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUP OF NEXT CYCLE (25) SOLAR ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSER-
VED ON VISIBLE DISC. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 42 SOLAR FLARE 
OF B AND A CLASSES, TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 2 CORONAL 
MASS EJECTIONS (31.09, 5.04) WAS OBSERVED OF THE PERIOD.
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
05.04 >0901  >0300  S32E45L286       5                     
05.04 >0901  >0300  S49E53L294      11                    
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch    EE    R  G  Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12.03/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN  WAS "-". NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR 
OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE.  NEXT IMF SECTOR BOUNDER 
THE EARTH WILL PASS AFTER 08.04 (POSSIBLE).
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
RCH     30     31     01     02     03     04     05   PRIL
Wus     000    012    013    012    013    011    000
F10.7   069    070    069    069    070    070    071     
bcg   A1.1   A1.2   A1.4   A1.3  <A1.0   A1.2   A1.1   GOES
Sp     000     010    020    030    030    010    000   msh   
N               1      1      1      1      1  
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  7.8E+6 9.0+6 3.9E+7 5.2E+7 2.6E+7 1.1E+7 1.1+7   GOES
Ie>2    527    391   1123   1661    1135   448    413   pfu 
Ap       11     16     6      7      9      5      5    n  
Dst     -28    -41                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     13     12     7      11     9      6      5    n IZMIRAN 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
02.04/1415 UT AND OBSERVED 1-3.04. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING BOULDER
DATA AND SUBSTORM (G0) <9 h. DURATION  WAS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. OT-
ER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED.  

 NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WILL OBSERVED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov