Solar Activity Forecast
2021/06/14
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 07 - 13.06.2021,
Forecast on 14 - 21.06.2021,
Carrington Rotation 2244, 2245 (11,48.05; 07,69.06.2021)
Earth out of ecliptic (-1.9 - -1.4) deg.
(S32 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL AND
13.06 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (46 SPOTLESS DAY AT 2021). THE ES-
TIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=15+17/
-15 (Wn=25+28/-25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 SMALL SUNSPOT
GROUPS WERE OBSERVED SIMULTANEOUSLY.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. 6 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY "C"
CLASS, 57 -"B" AND 5 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8, 9.06) WAS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Sp/craft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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7/0940 -12.06/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE
EXPECT 09.06.
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MAY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 JUNE
Wus 053 034 027 029 013 000 022
F10.7 081 080 079 073 077 078 069
èbcg ÷1.0 ÷1.5 ÷2.4 ÷1.1 á8.4 á7.7 á6.3 GOES
Sp 170 090 030 020 010 000 140 msh
N 1 1 1
IMF +/- - - - - -/+ + DSCOVR
Å>2 1.3å+6 1.3E+6 1.6å+6 1.3E+6 1.3E+6 1.5E+6 1.4å+6 GOES
Ie>2 223 - 149 151 165 112 189 pfu
Ap 12 5 4 5 10 10 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 14 5 4 5 8 12 5 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT NOT OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON FLUX REFLECTED A SLIGHT ENHANCE-
MENT TO JAST OVER 1 PFU AT 09/1600 UT FROM THE CME THAT ERUPTED
OFF FROM AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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