Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2021/06/14

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                  Highlights on 07 - 13.06.2021,
                   Forecast on 14 - 21.06.2021,
    Carrington Rotation 2244, 2245 (11,48.05; 07,69.06.2021)   
             Earth out of ecliptic (-1.9 - -1.4) deg. 
             (S32 - N32 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON LOW LEVEL AND
13.06 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (46 SPOTLESS DAY AT 2021). THE ES-
TIMATED MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=15+17/
-15 (Wn=25+28/-25). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 SMALL SUNSPOT 
GROUPS WERE OBSERVED SIMULTANEOUSLY.
  
 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=020+10/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS.  6 SOLAR FLARE OF X-RAY "C"
CLASS, 57 -"B" AND 5 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (8, 9.06) WAS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT THE PERIOD. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te     local.   Class   E(1-8A) AR RII/IV  CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2
DSF     to     te   localization   l deg.  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign  N end   E end   S end   W end  Sch   EE     R G  Sp/craft 
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 7/0940 -12.06/1230 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE 
EXPECT 09.06.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MAY      07     08     09     10     11     12     13  JUNE
Wus     053    034    027    029    013    000    022
F10.7   081    080    079    073    077    078    069   
bcg   1.0   1.5   2.4   1.1   8.4   7.7   6.3  GOES
Sp      170    090    030    020    010    000    140  msh   
N        1             1                           1   
IMF     +/-     -      -      -      -     -/+     +   DSCOVR   
>2  1.3+6 1.3E+6 1.6+6 1.3E+6 1.3E+6 1.5E+6 1.4+6  GOES
Ie>2    223     -     149    151    165    112    189  pfu
Ap       12     5      4      5      10     10     6   n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc     14     5      4      5      8      12     5   n IZMIRAN  
----------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV RECURRENT ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT NOT OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON FLUX REFLECTED A SLIGHT ENHANCE-
MENT TO JAST OVER 1 PFU AT 09/1600 UT FROM THE CME THAT ERUPTED 
OFF FROM AROUND THE WEST LIMB.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

IN THE NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLE IS EXPECTED A QUITE AND UN-
SETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov