Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
Home  UP  Research Projects Services Info News Events Personal Archive

Solar Activity Forecast

2022/11/21

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 14 - 20.11.2022
                     Forecast on 21 - 28.11.2022 
              Carrington Rotations 2264 (07,07.11.2022)
                Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 3.4) deg. 
                (S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW 
LEVELS.  ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W =
041+10/-8 (Wn=075+10/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 
6 SUNSPOT GROUPS (TWO LARGE) AND, 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI-
SPHERE. 

NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 X-RAY FLARES 
CLASS M, 85 - CLASS C, 16 - CLASS B AND 25 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS A TYPE II (angular width 090-180 deg)) HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
15.11 0242 0251 0307 N23W65L033 M1.0/1N 3.1E-03
19.11 1242 1256 1311 N20W50L254 M1.6    1.7E-02 13150 II/2 IV/1 CME

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CME/to
07.11  0830             W-limb      ~5               CME/0912
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY,
HIGH LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
 -  S25L318 S35L341 S50L333 S40L314 2.7% 19-20.11 R5 G1 SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 10.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 25.11. 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 14     15     16     17     18     19     20       
Wus     077    069    085    064    055    059    072   
F10.7   142    134    133    119    116    115    119   
bcg   1.0   1.2   1.2   1.1   B7.5   B6.0   3.9       GOES
Sp      890    810    850    370    410    440    520       msh   
N                      2      1      1                   
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        DSCOVR   
>2  4.9+6 6.0E+6 6.6E+6 5.3E+6 7.7E+6 2.6E+6 1.7E+6       GOES
Ie>2    227    414    342    261    508    134    218       Pfu
Ap       4      2      2      2      7      5      6        n  
Dst                                                         n KIOTO
Amsc     4      2      4      2      9      4      7        n IZMIRAN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

IN THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET 
TO ACTIVE. 

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov