Solar Activity Forecast
2020/04/06
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2020 HAS MADE
Wmar. = 0.9^ 1.5(n)
THAT GIVES FOR 128 MONTH (2019, SEPTEMBER) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*sep. = 1.9 3.5 - new system
W*aug. = 2.1 3.1 - new system
^- premiliminary, no data from Boulder center.
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020;
OTHER SC FORECAST:
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month) - December 2019;
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.;
NOAA - December 2019.
The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low
SCs were not observed.
The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October
2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for MARCH 2020
(68 observatories) :
1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 0 31.. 12
2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0
3.. 0 8.. 15í 13.. 0 18.. 3 23.. 0 28.. 0
4.. 0 9.. 12 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 0 29.. 0
5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 0 30.. 4
Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19,
20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
MARCH 2020, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER
F10.7mar. = 69.5 F*10.7sep.= xx.x
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MARCH 2020, AND SMOOT-
HES ON 2019, SEPTEMBER
Ap mar. = 5.6 Ap*sep. =x.x
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.03 - 05.04.2020,
Forecast on 06 - 13.04.2020,
Carrington Rotations 2229 (28,37.03.2020)
Earth out of ecliptic (-6.5 - -6.1) deg.
(S35 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SPOT-
LESS VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 30.03 AND 5.04 (71 SPOT-
LESS DAYS IN THE 2020). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 6+2/-6 (Wn=10+3/-10). ONE SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUP OF NEXT CYCLE (25) SOLAR ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSER-
VED ON VISIBLE DISC.
NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, BUT 42 SOLAR FLARE
OF B AND A CLASSES, TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 2 CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS (31.09, 5.04) WAS OBSERVED OF THE PERIOD.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to
05.04 >0901 >0300 S32E45L286 5
05.04 >0901 >0300 S49E53L294 11
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 12.03/20 UT THE IMF SECTOR SIGN WAS "-". NEXT WEEK THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE SECTOR STRUCTURE SIGN WILL NOT CHANGE. NEXT IMF SECTOR BOUNDER
THE EARTH WILL PASS AFTER 08.04 (POSSIBLE).
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íáRCH 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 áPRIL
Wus 000 012 013 012 013 011 000
F10.7 069 070 069 069 070 070 071
èbcg A1.1 A1.2 A1.4 A1.3 <A1.0 A1.2 A1.1 GOES
Sp 000 010 020 030 030 010 000 msh
N 1 1 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 7.8E+6 9.0å+6 3.9E+7 5.2E+7 2.6E+7 1.1E+7 1.1å+7 GOES
Ie>2 527 391 1123 1661 1135 448 413 pfu
Ap 11 16 6 7 9 5 5 nô
Dst -28 -41 nô KIOTO
Amsc 13 12 7 11 9 6 5 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN
02.04/1415 UT AND OBSERVED 1-3.04.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING BOULDER
DATA AND SUBSTORM (G0) <9 h. DURATION WAS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. OT-
ER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDI-
TION WILL OBSERVED.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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