Solar Activity Forecast
2023/09/25
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 17 - 24.09.2023
Forecast on 25 - 02.10.2023
Carrington Rotation 2275-2276 (03,75.09-01.02.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (7.15 - 7.0 deg)
(S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 127+12/
-30 (Wn= 181+17/-43). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12
SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.
FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 15 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í,
114 - CLASS C, 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND 72 CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS, 7 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg),
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
19.09 0345 0355 0404 N07E53L116 M1.1/SF 6.6E-03 13435 CME/0424
19.09 0923 0938 0944 N07E51L116 M1.8 1.0E-03 13435 CMEII/1000
19.09 2001 2014 2021 N07E45L116 M4.0 2.4E-02 13435 CME/2036
19.09 2221 2247 2237 N08E41L116 C9.7 8.7E-03 13435 II/680 IV/
20.09 1411 1425 1419 N07E35L116 M8.2 3.6E-02 13435 II/2|1054
21.02 1242 1302 1254 N07E22L116 M8.7 1.3E-03 13435 CME/1353
22.09 0203 0430 0336 N13E18L116 M1.2/DSF 1.8E-03 13435 CME/0224
22.09 1553 1640 1623 N29W36L145 M1.4 3.6E-03 13443
22.09 1706 1720 1715 N29W38L145 M1.5 9.6E-03 13443 II/0483 CME/1700
22.09 1920 1933 1929 S21W63L174 C9.9 3.2E-03 13437 II/2|483
22.09 1706 1720 1715 N29W38L145 M1.5 9.6E-03 13443
22.09 2225 2319 2300 N28W40L145 M1.9/SF 2.5E-02 13443 CME/2236
24.09 0251 0314 0416 S14E20L073 M1.9/1N 13445*
24.09 0259 0328 0416 S13E21L073 1N/M4.4 3.9E-02 13445*
24.09 1451 1500 1505 N27W57L145 M1.0 4.9E-03 13443 II/1|0755
*3 X-ray burst in solar flare 1N: M1.2(tmax-0307)+1.9+M4.4
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
22.09 0153 N13E18L116 M1.2 13435 CME/0224
22.09 0645 N36W05L107 >5 CME/0736
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 19.09/00 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 29.09.
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SEPTEMBER 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 SEPTEMBER
Wus 139 143 159 159 184 188 172
F10.7 155 166 156 168 176 173 174
èbcg ó1.0 ó1.2 B9.4 ó1.1 ó1.6 C1.2 c1.5 GOES
Sp 800 970 1190 910 930 970 950 msh
N 4 1 1 2 2
IMF - -/+ + + +/~ +/~ +/~ DSCOVR
Å>2 7.8å+6 3.3E+7 7.1E+7 2.8E+7 8.0å+7 7.6å+7 1.4å+7 GOES
Ie>2 734 2068 2923 1406 2553 2394 1024 pfU
Ap 29 46 16 9 8 9 21 nô
Dst -20 nô KIOTO
Amsc 19 29 14 - - - - nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
Pr>10MeV: to-24.09/0330 UT; max 2.26 pfu-24.09/15; te-25/09
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
BEGUN 19.09/1705 UT AND OBSERVED 19-24.09.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2
MeV IS NOT EXPECTED.
MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 43, dur=33 h) ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=39, dur= 33 h) ACCOR-
DING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED 18-19.09 AND STARTED AFTER THE
ARRIVAL OF 2 INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVES (SI- 17/0232 AND 18/
1330 UT) FROM THE EJECTA OF LARGE SOLAR FILAMENTS ON 16 AND 17.
09. THE NEXT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=64, dur=12 h) AC-
CORDING TO CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MINOR (G1, Ams= 36, dur=
15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED AT THE END OF THE DAY
24.09 AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE (SI-2043 UT, 129 nT)
FROM DOUBLE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 22.09 ON THE OTHER DAYS,
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON FLARE
EVENTS AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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