Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/01/23

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 16 - 22.01.2023
                     Forecast on 23 - 30.01.2023 
         Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023)
                Earth out of ecliptic (5.9 - 5.5) deg. 
               (S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  GHANGED FROM AT MIDDLE TO HIGH 
LEVELS.  ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 109+9/-9 
(Wn= 180+17/-16). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC  OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT 
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG AND 3 - MIDDLE SIZE. 4 LOCALIZED ON 
THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE. 

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=160+40/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLARE WAS 
X-RAY CLASS M, 81-CLASS C, ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 43 CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180 
deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
17.01 2316 2329 2344 S17E24L120 M1.8             13190    CME/0324
18.01 1021 1053	1035 S16E20L120 M1.8	  1.9E-02  13190            
19.01 0400 0403 0415 N11E43L084 M1.1/Sf 4.2E-03  13196    CME/0700
19.01 1006 1012 1019 N11E40L084 M1.7/SF 9.3E-03  13196                
19.01 1026 1027 1029 N11E43L084 M1.0    2.0E-03  13196
22.01 1212 1226 1234 S24W50L120 M1.1    1.2E-02  13190
22.01 1649 1702 1740 S26W51L120 M1.6/1 1.2E-02  13190

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CME/to
20.01   1131-1325  S37W47L059     26               CME/1528
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
 +  N10L106 N05L111 S15L101 S10L093 2.7% 26.01 5  SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 15.01/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 2.02. 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  09     10     11     12     13     14     15    JANUARY
Wus     142    201    183    151    181    170    177
F10.7   191    193    195    212    209    228    234  
bcg   2.2   C2.1   2.1   3.3   2.6    3.1   3.3   GOES
Sp     2290   2180   2060   1430   1650    1750   1820   msh   
N        1      2             1      4             2   
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -      -     DSCOVR   
>2  3.9+6 6.4E+6 2.6E+6 2.7E+6 5.2E+6  3.3+6 6.8+6    GOES
Ie>2    301    564    168    202    386    252    317    Pfu
Ap       5      7      9      9      12     11     30    n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     4      7      9      7      11     9      19    n IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.

Pr>10 MeV: to-0830; tmax1-1400/1.1 pfu; tmax2-0.73 pfu; te-21/0430 UT.
 
 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 MeV IS EXPEC-
TED AFTER 25.01.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH SUBSTORM 
(G0) OF 6 h DURATION. 

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM ACTIVE, BUT 
26.01  THE EARTH  WILL ENTER HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~10%.

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov