Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/03/20

                      25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      

         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2023
                     Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2023 
                Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023)
                Earth out of ecliptic (-7.25 - -7.0) deg.) 
               (S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WAS AT MIDDLE AND LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 
046+12/-19 (Wn=077+20-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC  OBSERVED 
FROM EIGHT TO THREE SUNSPOT GROUPS AND 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH 
HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE-
VELS.  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-60.

 FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA-
RE OF X-RAY CLASS , 47- CLASS , 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND 54 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (360 deg),  
AND 7-TYPE II (90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
17.03 1504 1507 1511 S22W65     M1.0/SN   3.1E-03 13247 

DSF (EPL) to    te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CMEtype/to
13.03 0946    1052 N29W06L         27      C3.1           CME/1036
16.03 0704    1149             EPL/0.15/B.9A                     
17.03 0930   <1046 S40W36          48                     CMEII/1023
18.03 <0000   <0419             EPL/0.27                  CMEII/0624
19.03 <1100          SW                                   CME/1100
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    
 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch  EE    R  G   Spacecraft 
* -  N11L170 N11L180 S02L165 N05L161 1.0%  14.03 1    SD0, HINOTORI
  -  S18L056 S55L121 S80L121 S40L049 10.8% 24.03 2    SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 FROM 13.03/1600 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 26.03. 
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MARCH     13     14     15     16     17     18     19   MARCH
Wus      087    097    096    084    058    035    073
F10.7    143    139    136    135    134    140    143  
bcg    B5.6   B5.9   B5.6   B6.1   B8.4   B8.7    B9.5   GOES
Sp       480    250    280    120    150    320    510    msh   
N                2                    1      1      3    
IMF      -/+     +   +/-/+     +      +      +      +     DSCOVR   
>2   1.1+7 7.1E+6 1.2E+6 1.9E+6 2.9E+6 2.9+6 5.4+6    GOES
Ie>2     399    504    157    121    166    198    280    pfU
Ap        2      18     29     6      5      7      9     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc      12     10     9      17     9      7      10    n IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES-15  in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  for events F> 
1000 pfu.
 
 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT OBSERVED 
 28.02-11.03.  

 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 MeV MAY BE  
EXPECTED AN 28.02.

 A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM BEGIN AT THE END OF THE DAY 13 AND 14.03 (G1, 
ms= 20, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDER DATA,  AND (G1, 
ms= 19, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF AR-
RIVAL TO THE EARTH DISTURBATIONS FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION EXHAUST 
ON 11.09 AND  HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE  "+" 
POLARITY. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS WEAKLY DISTURBED ON THE OTHER 
DAYS.

NEXT WEEK IS THE MOST LIKELY ACTIVE (23-24.09) GEOMAGNETIC ENVIRONMENT  
WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS THE HIGH SPEED STREAM OF THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HO-
LE.  THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM  IS  ABOUT 20%. ON OTHER 
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov