Solar Activity Forecast
2022/11/21
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.11.2022
Forecast on 21 - 28.11.2022
Carrington Rotations 2264 (07,07.11.2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 3.4) deg.
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MIDDLE AND LOW
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W =
041+10/-8 (Wn=075+10/-18). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP
6 SUNSPOT GROUPS (TWO LARGE) AND, 2 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMI-
SPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=70+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 2 X-RAY FLARES
CLASS M, 85 - CLASS C, 16 - CLASS B AND 25 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS,
ONE OF WHICH WAS A TYPE II (angular width 090-180 deg)) HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
15.11 0242 0251 0307 N23W65L033 M1.0/1N 3.1E-03
19.11 1242 1256 1311 N20W50L254 M1.6 1.7E-02 13150 II/2 IV/1 CME
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
07.11 0830 W-limb ~5 CME/0912
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBILITY,
HIGH LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî - S25L318 S35L341 S50L333 S40L314 2.7% 19-20.11 R5 G1 SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 10.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN EXPECTED 25.11.
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NOVEMBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 îïñâòø
Wus 077 069 085 064 055 059 072
F10.7 142 134 133 119 116 115 119
èbcg ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.2 ó1.1 B7.5 B6.0 ÷3.9 GOES
Sp 890 810 850 370 410 440 520 msh
N 2 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 4.9å+6 6.0E+6 6.6E+6 5.3E+6 7.7E+6 2.6E+6 1.7E+6 GOES
Ie>2 227 414 342 261 508 134 218 Pfu
Ap 4 2 2 2 7 5 6 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 2 4 2 9 4 7 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
IN THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM QUIET
TO ACTIVE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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