Solar Activity Forecast
2023/06/05
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2023 HAS MADE
Wmay = 82.7 137.9(in new system)
THAT GIVES FOR 35 MONTH (NOVEMBER 2022) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25
SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*nov = 61.0 101 - in new system
W*Ïct = 59.2 98.7 - in new system
On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu-
lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA.
THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n)
THE PHASE OF MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 25 - 2020 01 - 2021 10
MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n)
THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031;
PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR MAY 2023
(66 observatories):
1..105m 6..116 11..158 16..106 21..144 26..145 31..179M
2..123 7..133 12..142 17..106 22..138 27..139
3..122 8..130 13..133 18..134 23..128 28..146
4..138 9..177 14..134 19..143 24..150 29..157
5..114 10..165 15..111 20..144 25..151 30..165
[The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase)
can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6].
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)
ON MAY 2023, AND SMOOTHES ON NOVEMBER 2022
F10.7may = 145.9 F*10.7nov= 140.4
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON MAY 2023, AND
SMOOTHES ON NOVEMBER 2022 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
Ap may = 13.3 Ap*nov = xxx
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25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.05 - 04.06.2023
Forecast on 05 - 13.06.2023
Carrington Rotations 2271 (17,9.05.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (-1.0 - -0.4 deg.)
(S30 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
MBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 091+1/
-25 (Wn = 151+2/-41). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 7
SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 BIG SIZE, AND UP 3 OF THEM LOCALIZED ON THE
SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLA-
RES OF X-RAY CLASS M, 81-CLASS ó, 2 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS
AND 35 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (90-180
deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
30.05 0754 0810 0819 N00E00L285 M1.2/SF 9.7E-03 13310
30.05 1015 1022 1029 S22W89L285 M1.3 6.4E-03 13310
30.05 1336 1338 1400 S20W41L234 M1.4/1B 3.0E-03 13315
31.05 0424 0438 0444 S07E89L104 M1.3 9.3E-03 13323
31.05 1223 1226 1230 S17W20L200 M1.0 2.3E-03 13319
31.05 2214 2252 2312 S06E82L104 M4.2 13323
02.06 0232 0241 0245 N16E02L159 M1.5 4.3E-03 13324
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
03.06 >0119 >1337 S26E29L119 5 13321
04.06 0830 1000 S20W33L089 35 CME/1036
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH + S25L253 S30L293 S55L323 S27L251 3.2% 01.06 2 MMâ SDO, HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 3.06/01 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 16.06.
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MAY 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 íáê
Wus 153 144 147 143 147 112 110
F10.7 154 162 161 164 162 165 168
èbcg ÷9.2 C1.3 ó1.8 ó1.5 ó1.3 ó1.4 B1.5 GOES
Sp 1320 990 1590 1160 1070 880 930 msh
N 4 2 1 3
IMF - - - - - -/+ ~ DSCOVR
Å>2 7.2å+6 1.6E+7 1.0E+7 3.7E+6 4.1å+6 8.5å+6 2.8E+6 GOES
Ie>2 277 521 653 243 226 319 328 pfU
Ap 4 4 9 11 4 4 9 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 6 10 14 6 5 12 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
NO OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2
MeV IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK, THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE CONTINUED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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