Solar Activity Forecast
2022/05/23
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.05.2022,
Forecast on 23 - 30.05.2022
Carrington Rotations 2257, 2258 (01,1.05. 2022)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.5 - 4.0) deg.
(S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WERE ON MIDLLE AND HIGH LEVEL.
ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=93+11/-28 (Wn=155+18/
-45). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 WAS
THE HIGH, 1 MIDDLE SIZE AND 5 PASSED ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=110+50/-30.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. SIX FLARES
X-RAY WAS CLASS "M", 92 - CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND
32 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
16.05 1310 1327 1359 N13E78L084 M2.4/SF 3.1E-02 13017
18.05 2156 2202 2208 N22E23L110 M1.1 13014 18/2212
19.05 0632 0719 0757 N18E26L084 M5.6/2B 5.4E-02 13017+15
19.05 0909 1040 1009 N21E15L110 M1.5/1N 1.1E-02 13014 19/1036
19.05 1505 1534 1516 N22E11L110 M1.1 7.6E-03 13014
20.05 0735 0749 0745 N19E00L110 M3.0 8.2E-03 13014
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
16.05 >0055 >1306 S08E58L 15
18.05 >0025 >1343 S50E40L 15
22.05 1604 1631 0.18
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NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBI-
LITY, HIGH LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH - N46L095 N35L125 N18L098 N18L082 2.8% 26.05 2 G1 SDO HINODE
CH - N01L095 S30L148 S32L105 S03L093 3.6% 26.05 3 G1 SDO HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 12.04/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT
25.05.
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MAY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 MAY
Wus 173 153 147 154 109 110 138
F10.7 162 176 180 173 166 147 165
èbcg C1.2 ó1.8 ó1.6 ó1.7 C1.3 ó1.2 ó1.2 GOES
Sp 800 680 1350 1500 1400 1100 1040 msh
N 2 1 1 2
IMF + + + + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 1.3å+6 1.5E+6 2.3E+6 2.8E+6 2.9E+6 2.4E+7 2.7E+7 GOES
Ie>2 138 256 164 201 225 931 952 pfu
Ap 10 12 7 10 12 10 11 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 12 15 8 9 12 13 10 IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT
OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 26.05.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET
ALL DAYS EXCEPT 27-28.05 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAMS
FROM THE ABOVE CORONAL HOLES. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM
IS AT LEAST 40%
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V. Ishkov
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