Solar Activity Forecast
2023/03/20
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.03.2023
Forecast on 20 - 27.03.2023
Carrington Rotation 2968 (25,1.02.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (-7.25 - -7.0) deg.)
(S25 - N30 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE AND LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=
046+12/-19 (Wn=077+20-42). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED
FROM EIGHT TO THREE SUNSPOT GROUPS AND 6 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH
HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND MIDDLE LE-
VELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=100+40/-60.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 1 FLA-
RE OF X-RAY CLASS í, 47- CLASS ó, 5 EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS
AND 54 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS TYPE IV (360 deg),
AND 7-TYPE II (90-180 deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
17.03 1504 1507 1511 S22W65 M1.0/SN 3.1E-03 13247
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
13.03 0946 1052 N29W06L 27 C3.1 CME/1036
16.03 0704 1149 EPL/0.15/B.9A
17.03 0930 <1046 S40W36 48 CMEII/1023
18.03 <0000 <0419 EPL/0.27 CMEII/0624
19.03 <1100 SW CME/1100
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî* - N11L170 N11L180 S02L165 N05L161 1.0% 14.03 1 á SD0, HINOTORI
óî - S18L056 S55L121 S80L121 S40L049 10.8% 24.03 2 á SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 13.03/1600 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 26.03.
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MARCH 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 MARCH
Wus 087 097 096 084 058 035 073
F10.7 143 139 136 135 134 140 143
èbcg B5.6 B5.9 B5.6 B6.1 B8.4 B8.7 B9.5 GOES
Sp 480 250 280 120 150 320 510 msh
N 2 1 1 3
IMF -/+ + +/-/+ + + + + DSCOVR
Å>2 1.1å+7 7.1E+6 1.2E+6 1.9E+6 2.9E+6 2.9å+6 5.4å+6 GOES
Ie>2 399 504 157 121 166 198 280 pfU
Ap 2 18 29 6 5 7 9 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 12 10 9 17 9 7 10 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT OBSERVED
28.02-11.03.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV MAY BE
EXPECTED AN 28.02.
A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM BEGIN AT THE END OF THE DAY 13 AND 14.03 (G1,
áms= 20, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOLDER DATA, AND (G1,
áms= 19, dur= 15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF AR-
RIVAL TO THE EARTH DISTURBATIONS FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION EXHAUST
ON 11.09 AND HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "+"
POLARITY. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS WEAKLY DISTURBED ON THE OTHER
DAYS.
NEXT WEEK IS THE MOST LIKELY ACTIVE (23-24.09) GEOMAGNETIC ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE EARTH ENTERS THE HIGH SPEED STREAM OF THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HO-
LE. THE PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS ABOUT 20%. ON OTHER
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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