Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2022/07/04

                      25   , 
                         :  

       2022 .
              W. =42.4          70.6n (n -   )   
   24  (2021, )   25  -
     
              W*. = 33.4        55.7 -   
              W*.= 30.4        50.6 -   

  1  2015 .    ۣ    ޣ -
    , ,    - 
ӣ     (.  ). 
[,     W    
~     ,    k=0.6]  

 25    -  2020 ., W*min =  1.3 (1.8)
              25   - 2020 01 - 2021 10
   25   -  2024 ., W*max = 90-100 (150)
 25    ( )   -    I - VI 2031 .

      (  
)   2022 .   65  :
     1.. 63    6.. 32   11.. 39   16..151M  21.. 96   26.. 33
     2.. 59    7..  8   12.. 54   17..151M  22.. 89   27.. 52
     3.. 55    8..  4m  13.. 94   18..148   23.. 71   28.. 61
     4.. 66    9.. 22   14..122   19..119   24.. 61   29.. 36
     5.. 48   10.. 47   15..148   20.. 97   25.. 48   30.. 42

     10  (2800 MHz) 
  2022 .     2021 .  
                 F = 116.1                  F*. = 101.7
 -   2022 .     2021 . 
     
                  = 8.4                    *. = XXX
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    25   , 
                      :  

        ,  ,
             
                       27.06 - 03.07.2022 .
                      04 - 11.07.2022 .            
                2259 (24,5.06.2022)    
                : (-6.8 - -6.4) .         
                 (  S28 - N35)            
                                                              
         -
 .      -
  B      W=047+15/-9 
(Wn=047+24/-15).       6   
,  4    .

        
  .         
C  W=40+30/-20.                                           

         . 2 -
   "", 58 -  "",     
  24   ,  III  ( -
 180-270 )    ,     , 
  .       -
  4F  1 .       
 3-4          -
   .

------------------------------------------------------------------
   1 (     )
         to   tm   te        (1-8A)     RII/IV CME/to
                                  /   J/m-2
01.07 <0019 0019  0024 S12W49l324      4F          13040       

*    to    te   localization l  . Fl   AR   CME/to
28.06     2200     .      ~5
02.07 >0023 >1302  S38E00L254       5
*-   (DSF, EPL)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
     ,      
 ,     . 
 
        
 :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  N    S  W  Sch      R  G     KA
CH -  S18L097 S38L117 S40L107 S32L087 1.2% 28.06  1  - SDO HINOTORY
CH +  N30L235 N20L270 N10L260 N25L225 5.9% 5-6.07 1 -  SDO HINOTORY
* -  ,     . <6 .
Sch -    %      -
  https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d -  ;  -  
    ; R -    -
; G(0-5)- ݣ    ( -
); A - ݣ  .
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 

  21.06/14 UT    "-"    
.    "-/+"  08.07.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
      27     28     29     30     01     02     03  
Wus      032    071    048    040    039    057    042 
F10.7    098    096    092    096    098    100    102
bcg    B2.4   1.7   1.4   1.3   1.5   1.5   1.9  GOES
Sp       180    180    080    090    210    320    200  msh   
N                3             1      1      2      1 
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -      -   DSCOVR   
>2   1.7+8 2.3E+8 1.6E+8 2.5E+8 2.6E+8 2.1E+6 1.6E+6  GOES
Ie>2    3636   4931   -      4549   6971   2304    167  pfu
Ap        12     8      6      3      7      19     8   n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      8      7      5      7      6      12     8   n IZMIRAN 
----------------------------------------------------------------------   
>2 -    >2 MeV    e/(cm2-ster-day);   
Ie>2-      
     GOES 15  (electrons/cm2-s-sr) -  
  >/=1000 pfu).                                                              

       >2  -
  25/1410 UT    25.06-3.07.

        - 
  >2   4 - 8.07.06.

         -
,     26-27.06 (G0, Ams=26, .=21 )
 9       02.07  
G1      , ,   ,   
  6-    G0.   - 
      -
    ,   -  
      26.06.
 
        5-6.07, 
        -
  .     >60%.  
                                                      
        
,             http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/     
     ,   
,         http://sidc.oma.be/,  
 (, ) http://www.izmiran.ru 

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