Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/09/25

                    25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
               THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE      
                    
         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 17 - 24.09.2023
                    Forecast on 25 - 02.10.2023 
         Carrington Rotation 2275-2276 (03,75.09-01.02.2023)
               Earth out of ecliptic (7.15 - 7.0 deg) 
                (S27 - N35 is zone of geoefficiency)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  REMAINED ON MIDDLE LEVELS. 
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR PERIOD IS W= 127+12/
-30 (Wn= 181+17/-43). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 
SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND UP 4 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=120+50/-50.

FLARE ACTIVITY CHANGED ON LOW LEVEL. 15 FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS ,
114 - CLASS C, 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND  72 CORONAL MASS 
EJECTIONS, 7 OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg), 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2           
19.09 0345 0355	0404 N07E53L116 M1.1/SF  6.6E-03 13435    CME/0424   
19.09 0923 0938 0944 N07E51L116 M1.8     1.0E-03 13435    CMEII/1000 
19.09 2001 2014 2021 N07E45L116 M4.0     2.4E-02 13435    CME/2036  
19.09 2221 2247	2237 N08E41L116 C9.7 	   8.7E-03 13435 II/680 IV/
20.09 1411 1425	1419 N07E35L116 M8.2     3.6E-02 13435 II/2|1054
21.02 1242 1302	1254 N07E22L116 M8.7     1.3E-03 13435     CME/1353 
22.09 0203 0430	0336 N13E18L116 M1.2/DSF 1.8E-03 13435     CME/0224
22.09 1553 1640	1623 N29W36L145	M1.4	   3.6E-03 13443            
22.09 1706 1720	1715 N29W38L145	M1.5	9.6E-03 13443 II/0483 CME/1700
22.09 1920 1933	1929 S21W63L174	C9.9	   3.2E-03 13437 II/2|483
22.09 1706 1720	1715 N29W38L145	M1.5	   9.6E-03 13443             
22.09 2225 2319	2300 N28W40L145	M1.9/SF  2.5E-02 13443      CME/2236
24.09 0251 0314	0416 S14E20L073	M1.9/1N          13445*             
24.09 0259 0328	0416 S13E21L073 1N/M4.4  3.9E-02 13445*
24.09 1451 1500 1505 N27W57L145 M1.0     4.9E-03 13443 II/1|0755   
*3 X-ray burst in solar flare 1N: M1.2(tmax-0307)+1.9+M4.4 
 
DSF (EPL) to   te localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CMEtype/to
22.09 0153         N13E18L116           M1.2 13435      CME/0224
22.09 0645         N36W05L107     >5                    CME/0736
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE  R  G  Spacecraft 
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 19.09/00 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 29.09.

------------------------------------------------------------------- 
SEPTEMBER 18     19     20     21     22     23     24   SEPTEMBER   
Wus      139    143    159    159    184    188    172            
F10.7    155    166    156    168    176    173    174              
bcg    1.0   1.2   B9.4   1.1   1.6   C1.2   c1.5   GOES       
Sp       800    970   1190    910    930    970    950   msh        
N         4      1      1      2      2                             
IMF       -     -/+     +      +     +/~    +/~    +/~   DSCOVR     
>2   7.8+6 3.3E+7 7.1E+7 2.8E+7 8.0+7 7.6+7 1.4+7   GOES       
Ie>2     734   2068   2923   1406   2553   2394   1024   pfU       
Ap        29     46     16     9      8      9      21   n        
Dst                                                -20   n KIOTO  
Amsc      19     29     14     -      -      -      -    n IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary 
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in  (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  
for events F>1000 pfu.
           
Pr>10MeV: to-24.09/0330 UT; max 2.26 pfu-24.09/15; te-25/09

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT  
BEGUN 19.09/1705 UT AND OBSERVED 19-24.09.

 NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 
MeV IS NOT EXPECTED.

 MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams= 43, dur=33 h) ACCORDING TO 
THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=39, dur= 33 h) ACCOR-
DING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED 18-19.09 AND STARTED AFTER THE 
ARRIVAL OF 2 INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVES (SI- 17/0232  AND  18/
1330 UT) FROM THE EJECTA OF LARGE SOLAR FILAMENTS ON 16 AND 17.
09. THE NEXT MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=64, dur=12 h) AC-
CORDING TO CENTER IN BOULDER DATA  AND MINOR (G1, Ams= 36, dur= 
15 h) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA WAS NOTED AT THE END OF THE DAY 
24.09 AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE (SI-2043 UT, 129 nT) 
FROM DOUBLE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 22.09 ON THE OTHER DAYS, 
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON FLARE 
EVENTS AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov