Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2022/05/23

                       25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, 
                THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM      

       Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 16 - 22.05.2022,
                     Forecast on 23 - 30.05.2022 
         Carrington Rotations 2257, 2258 (01,1.05. 2022) 
              Earth out of ecliptic (3.5 - 4.0) deg. 
            (S32 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  WERE ON MIDLLE AND HIGH LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=93+11/-28 (Wn=155+18/
-45). THERE ARE ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP TO 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1 WAS 
THE HIGH, 1 MIDDLE SIZE AND 5 PASSED ON NORTH HEMISPHERE, HAVE BEEN 
OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL. WEEK- 
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=110+50/-30.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. SIX FLARES 
X-RAY WAS CLASS "M", 92 - CLASS "C", 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 
32 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization  Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                 X-ray/p  J/m-2           
16.05 1310 1327	1359  N13E78L084 M2.4/SF 3.1E-02 13017
18.05 2156 2202	2208	N22E23L110 M1.1            13014      18/2212
19.05 0632 0719	0757	N18E26L084 M5.6/2B 5.4E-02 13017+15
19.05 0909 1040	1009	N21E15L110 M1.5/1N 1.1E-02 13014      19/1036         
19.05 1505 1534	1516	N22E11L110 M1.1	   7.6E-03 13014               
20.05 0735 0749	0745  N19E00L110 M3.0	   8.2E-03 13014  

DSF (EPL) to     te  localization  l deg.  Fl    AR     CME/to
16.05 >0055 >1306  S08E58L         15
18.05 >0025  >1343 S50E40L         15
22.05  1604   1631                  0.18
-------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, MIDDLE AND, POSSIBI-
LITY, HIGH LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
CH -   N46L095 N35L125 N18L098 N18L082 2.8% 26.05 2  G1  SDO HINODE
CH -   N01L095 S30L148 S32L105 S03L093 3.6% 26.05 3  G1  SDO HINODE
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12.04/1310 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN BE EXPECT 
25.05.
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MAY       16     17     18     19     20     21     22  MAY
Wus      173    153    147    154    109    110    138 
F10.7    162    176    180    173    166    147    165
bcg    C1.2   1.8   1.6   1.7   C1.3   1.2   1.2  GOES
Sp       800    680   1350   1500   1400   1100   1040  msh   
N         2      1             1                    2  
IMF       +      +      +      +      +      +      +   DSCOVR   
>2   1.3+6 1.5E+6 2.3E+6 2.8E+6 2.9E+6 2.4E+7 2.7E+7  GOES
Ie>2     138    256    164    201    225    931    952  pfu
Ap        10     12     7      10     12     10     11  n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      12     15     8      9      12     13     10  IZMIRAN   
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT 
 OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED  AFTER 26.05.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND QUIET 
ALL DAYS EXCEPT 27-28.05 WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS HIGH-SPEED STREAMS 
FROM THE ABOVE CORONAL HOLES.  PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM 
IS AT LEAST 40%

 HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov