Solar Activity Forecast
2023/01/23
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF RISE
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.01.2023
Forecast on 23 - 30.01.2023
Carrington Rotations 2266-2967 (1,38-28,7.01.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (5.9 - 5.5) deg.
(S20 - N35 is zone of geoeffectiveness)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY GHANGED FROM AT MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W= 109+9/-9
(Wn= 180+17/-16). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC OBSERVED UP 12 SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG AND 3 - MIDDLE SIZE. 4 LOCALIZED ON
THE SOUTH HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=160+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 7 FLARE WAS
X-RAY CLASS M, 81-CLASS C, ONE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENT AND 43 CO-
RONAL MASS EJECTIONS, ONE OF WHICH WAS TYPE II (angular width 90-180
deg) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
17.01 2316 2329 2344 S17E24L120 M1.8 13190 CME/0324
18.01 1021 1053 1035 S16E20L120 M1.8 1.9E-02 13190
19.01 0400 0403 0415 N11E43L084 M1.1/Sf 4.2E-03 13196 CME/0700
19.01 1006 1012 1019 N11E40L084 M1.7/SF 9.3E-03 13196
19.01 1026 1027 1029 N11E43L084 M1.0 2.0E-03 13196
22.01 1212 1226 1234 S24W50L120 M1.1 1.2E-02 13190
22.01 1649 1702 1740 S26W51L120 M1.6/1÷ 1.2E-02 13190
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to
20.01 1131-1325 S37W47L059 26 CME/1528
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
óî + N10L106 N05L111 S15L101 S10L093 2.7% 26.01 5 ííâ SD0, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 15.01/23 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "+/-" IT CAN EXPECTED 2.02.
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JANUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 JANUARY
Wus 142 201 183 151 181 170 177
F10.7 191 193 195 212 209 228 234
èbcg ó2.2 C2.1 ó2.1 ó3.3 ó2.6 ó3.1 ó3.3 GOES
Sp 2290 2180 2060 1430 1650 1750 1820 msh
N 1 2 1 4 2
IMF - - - - - - - DSCOVR
Å>2 3.9å+6 6.4E+6 2.6E+6 2.7E+6 5.2E+6 3.3å+6 6.8å+6 GOES
Ie>2 301 564 168 202 386 252 317 Pfu
Ap 5 7 9 9 12 11 30 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 4 7 9 7 11 9 19 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr) for events F>
1000 pfu.
Pr>10 MeV: to-0830; tmax1-1400/1.1 pfu; tmax2-0.73 pfu; te-21/0430 UT.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NOT OB-
SERVED.
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2 MeV IS EXPEC-
TED AFTER 25.01.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH SUBSTORM
(G0) OF 6 h DURATION.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE CHANGING FROM ACTIVE, BUT
26.01 THE EARTH WILL ENTER HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF A MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ~10%.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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