Solar Activity Forecast
2023/11/20
25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.11.2023
Forecast on 20 - 17.11.2023
Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023)
Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 2.5 deg)
(S29 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency)
THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO
VERY LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE-
RIOD IS W=031+52/-15 (Wn=052+34/-36). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC
OBSERVED UP SIX SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH
HEMISPHERE.
NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK
WILL W=080+40/-40.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. 4 FLARE OF X-RAY
CLASS M, 110 -CLASS C, 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 59 CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS, 1 OF WHICH WAS A TYPE IV (HALO) AND 5 OF TYPE
II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Ïp J/m-2
14.11 2258 2305 2309 S20W75L205 M1.0/SN 13485
18.11 0537 0542 0550 N23E89L344 M1.2 6.1E-03 13490
18.11 1634 1644 1654 N16E89L344 M1.1 13490
18.11 2226 2233 2240 N14E89L344 M1.0 13490
DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CMEtype/to
16.11 0339 0402 S09W50L161 EPL 0.25 C1.4 13486 CME/0336
17.11 0859 1212 S34W55L039 20 B.8A
18.11 S30E45L 20
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED:
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft
CH + N28L111 N10L114 N02L104 N19L094 1.9% 21.11 1 - SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations;
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 18.11/0700 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.11.
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NOVEMBER 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 îïñâòø
Wus 085 086 041 028 026 039 051
F10.7 134 124 119 118 120 127 140
èbcg ÷7.4 B9.4 ÷8.9 ÷8.6 B7.1 C1.5 ó1.6 GOES
Sp 560 580 210 130 180 340 400 msh
N 1 1 1 1 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + +/- - DSCOVR
Å>2 3.7å+6 2.3E+6 3.0E+6 7.2E+6 1.1E+7 1.3å+7 5.9å+6 GOES
Ie>2 592 181 101 277 340 399 250 pfU
Ap 14 4 12 12 2 1 3 nô
Dst nô KIOTO
Amsc 14 5 12 7 4 3 3 nô IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)
for events F>1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
NOT OBSERVED.
NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH å>2
MeV BE NOT EXPECTED.
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED
AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
V.Ishkov
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