Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2023/11/20

                    25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY,
               THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MAXIMUM      
                    
         Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                   Highlights on 13 - 19.11.2023
                      Forecast on 20 - 17.11.2023 
        Carrington Rotations 2277-2278 (28,31.10-24.62.2023)
               Earth out of ecliptic (3.0 - 2.5 deg) 
                (S29 - N32 is zone of geoefficiency)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY  CHANGED FROM MODERATE  TO 
VERY LOW LEVELS.  ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE 
OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PE-
RIOD IS W=031+52/-15 (Wn=052+34/-36). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISC 
OBSERVED UP SIX SUNSPOT GROUPS AND UP 3 LOCALIZED ON THE SOUTH 
HEMISPHERE.

 NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, AT THE END 
OF THE PERIOD, MODERATE LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK 
WILL W=080+40/-40.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS.  4 FLARE OF X-RAY 
CLASS M, 110 -CLASS C, 3 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 59 CORONAL 
MASS EJECTIONS,  1 OF WHICH  WAS A TYPE IV (HALO) AND 5 OF TYPE 
II (angular width 90-180 deg), HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
       to   tm   te localization Class   E(1-8A)  AR  RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p  J/m-2
14.11 2258 2305 2309 S20W75L205 M1.0/SN         13485     
18.11 0537 0542 0550 N23E89L344 M1.2    6.1E-03 13490     
18.11 1634 1644 1654 N16E89L344 M1.1            13490     
18.11 2226 2233 2240 N14E89L344 M1.0            13490     

DSF (EPL) to   te localization  l deg.  Fl    AR   CMEtype/to
16.11 0339  0402  S09W50L161   EPL 0.25 C1.4 13486      CME/0336    
17.11 0859  1212  S34W55L039    20 B.8A                             
18.11             S30E45L       20                                  
-------------------------------------------------------------------

 NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A LOW AND MODERATE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED:
 sign N end   E end   S end   W end   Sch   EE   R  G  Spacecraft 
CH + N28L111 N10L114 N02L104 N19L094 1.9% 21.11  1  -  SDO, HINOTORI
* - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h only.
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 18.11/0700 UT THE EARTH MOVED TO THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANE-
TARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" EXPECTED 21.11.

----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
NOVEMBER 13     14     15     16     17     18     19           
Wus     085    086    041    028    026    039    051
F10.7   134    124    119    118    120    127    140    
bcg   7.4   B9.4   8.9   8.6   B7.1   C1.5   1.6    GOES       
Sp      560    580    210    130    180    340    400    msh        
N        1      1      1             1      1      1     
IMF     -/+     +      +      +      +     +/-     -     DSCOVR     
>2  3.7+6 2.3E+6 3.0E+6 7.2E+6 1.1E+7 1.3+7 5.9+6    GOES       
Ie>2    592    181    101    277    340    399    250    pfU       
Ap       14     4      12     12     2      1      3     n        
Dst                                                      n KIOTO  
Amsc     14     5      12     7      4      3      3     n IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------  
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux on geostationary 
orbits for days according to GOES-18 in  (electrons/cm*2/s.sr)  
for events F>1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT  
NOT OBSERVED.

 NEXT WEEK A HIGH LEVEL OF HIGH-ENERGY ELECTRON FLUX WITH >2 
MeV BE NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.

 NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION PROMISES TO BE UNSETTLED 
AND QUITE. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V.Ishkov