Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 24.07.2011,
Forecast on 25 - 31.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2112 2113 (03,01 - 30,22.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO LOW AND MIDDLE 
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=043+33/-18. ON THE 
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 8 AND 3 OF SMALL 
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE 
VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 18, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER 
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 56 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM 
THEM 2 (20 AND 23 JULY) WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.).
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      to   tm   te   location   Class   å(1-8A)  áR  Radio II/IV  CME Pr
                                X-ray Ïp J/m-2   
        to    te  centre location  l × ÇÒÁÄ.   Fl  Aï        CME
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES 
WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   å end   S end   W end       EE     R   Observatories
óî -  N10L172 S28L144 S29L147 N02L175  19-20.07  3   KP, SDO, SOHO...
óî -  N55L004 N45L349 N28L038 N35L041  28.07     3   KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 18.07/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 05.08.

éàìø    18     19     20     21     22     23     24     éàìø
Wus    127    096    079    056    054    041    046
F10.7  102    100    100    096    092    088    086
èbcg  B2.4   B2.2   B2.1   B1.8   B1.6   B1.5   ÷1.4     GOES
Sp     400    660    310    290    180    160    040
Nnew    2                                  1
IMF   + /-     -      -      -      -      -      -      ACE
Å>2 1.7å+7 8.2å+6 4.9å+7 1.7å+8 2.2E+8 4.0å+8 4.7å+8     GOES
Nm%                                                      THULE
Ap     8      18      21    13     10     8      4       áÒ
Dst   -17    -23     -24   -30    -22    -24    -12      KIOTO
Amsc   7      18      18    10     8      10     7       IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE 
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 20/1250 UT UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED 
20-24.07.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 
JULY 25-27th ALREADY FROM FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLE. 

ON JULY, 19-20th ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN 
HEMISPHERE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM STRETCHED ON TIME (G1, Ams=25, dur. 
= 33 Þ.), HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS THESE 
DAYS WERE ONLY ACTIVE, WITHOUT REACHING PARAMETERS OF THE MAGNETIC STORM. 
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK ON JULY, 28th THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE 
SOLAR WIND FROM HIGH-LATITUDE CORONAL HOLE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (TABLE).
PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THESE DAYS NO MORE THAN 5 %. IN OTHER 
DAYS IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru