THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, JULY F*june. = 94.2 s.f.u. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.08.2011, Forecast on 08 - 15.08.2011, Carrington Rotation 2113 (30,22.07.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=055+23/-15. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WAS PRESENT FROM 3 TO 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH HAS GROWN TILL THE BIG SIZE AND ONE TO THE AVE- RAGE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERA- GE VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON AUGUST, 3 AND 4 WHEN IN SUNSPOT GROUP AR11261 (N16L330, Sp=390 m.v.h) WERE OCCURENCED 2 LARGE FLARES OF X-RAY CLASS í6.0 AND í9.3, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL - ON AUGUST, 2nd, OTHER DAYS - ON A LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 60 CME FROM WHICH 2 (2 AND 3.08) WERE TYPE PARTIAL HALO III AND ONE FULL HALO FROM THE LARGE FLARE ON AUGUST, 4th. --------------------------------------------------------------------- to tm te ËÏÏ-ÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME ÒÅÎÔ ÏÐ J/m-2 MÇÃ 02.08/0519 0619 >0646 N14W15L330 M1.4/1N 3.9E-2 11261 II/2 IV/2 CME 03.08/0308 0337 0405 N17W24L330 M1.1/SF 1.6E-3 11261 03.08/0429 0432 0504 N15E08L302 M1.7/1F 3.2E-3 11263 03.08/1317 1348 1538 N16W30L330 M6.0/2B 1.2E-1 11261 II/1 IV/2 CME 04.08/0341 0357 0505 N19W36L330 M9.3/2B 5.4E-2 11261 II/2 IV/2 CME to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME DSF 06/ CME/1036 DSF 06/ CME/1736 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.07/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 15.08. JULY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JULY Wus 038 030 054 084 088 101 128 F10.7 087 094 099 107 112 113 119 èbcg B1.7 B2.7 B4.8 B5.4 B5.0 B3.0 ÷3.6 GOES Sp 035 320 380 770 930 1170 1130 Nnew 1 1 2 1 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 9.2å+7 7.2å+7 8.3å+7 9.0å+7 8.0E+7 2.0å+7 1.2å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 10 3 2 4 54 29 6 áÒ Dst -19 -18 -10 -8 -98 -117 -57 KIOTO Amsc 9 7 6 7 22 31 17 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. ON AUGUST, 5-7th ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM STRETCHED ON TIME (G4, Ams=94, dur. = 18 h.), HOWEVER ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS THESE DAYS WERE ON LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=36, dur.= 33 h.). IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov , OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 , OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru WDC STP MOSCOW