Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.08.2011, Forecast on 22 - 29.08.2011, Carrington Rotation 2113, 2114 (30,22.07, 26,45.08.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD AGAIN TO INCREASE AND BY THE PERIOD END HAS REACHED THE CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=026+14/-16. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY IS PRESENT TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL SMALL. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=040+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 44 CME FROM WHICH 1 WERE TYPE PARTIAL HALO II (AUGUST, 17th). --------------------------------------------------------------------- to tm te localization Class å(1-8A) áR RII/IV CME X-ray opt. J/m-2 to te central part localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME DSF 16/>1647 <0510 N39E16L106 06 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S20L098 S38L084 S40L096 S28L113 20.08 1 KP,SDO,SOHO... CH - N20L062 N11L060 N00L076 N08L080 23.08 1 KP,SDO,SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 10.08/1730 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 02.09. AUGUST 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 AUGUST Wus 013 026 044 053 046 059 066 F10.7 090 093 098 098 098 101 101 èbcg B2.6 B2.0 B2.3 B1.9 B1.6 B2.3 ÷2.0 GOES Sp 120 250 310 360 280 340 390 Nnew 1 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 1.0å+7 2.0å+7 4.4å+7 4.4å+7 4.0E+7 3.4å+7 2.0å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 13 8 4 3 1 5 3 áÒ Dst KIOTO Amsc 21 15 15 15 15 18 15 IZMIRAN Data of IZMIRAN is possibly overestimated. ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AUGUST, 17-18. THE FLUX INCREASE BEGINNING (> 1000 p.f.u.)-17.08/1310 UT. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 24-29 AUGUST. ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK FROM SECOND HALF OF DAYS 22 AND 23 AUGUST THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CORONAL HOLES OF SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NOT LESS THAN 60 %. IN OTHER DAYS IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov , OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 , OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru WDC STP MOSCOW