------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2011 HAS MADE Waug.= 50.6, THAT GIVES FOR 26 MONTH (2011, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb.= 33.4 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013 (Date of approach of a maximum of a current cycle close to a reality can be defined only after 18 - 24 months of its development). THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7 SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6 MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2 HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002. THE OF THE 23 CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7. The most probable height according to all available information will make current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70. Possible specifications after 28 months of development of a cycle (on the smoothed values of relative Wolf number). THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 71 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 82 6.. 61 11.. 29 16.. 24 21.. 56 26.. 66 31.. 96í 2.. 73 7.. 61 12.. 22 17.. 39 22.. 71 27.. 59 3.. 62 8.. 54 13.. 14 18.. 45 23.. 75 28.. 49 4.. 71 9.. 47 14.. 0Í 19.. 46 24.. 54 29.. 43 5.. 68 10.. 28 15.. 9 20.. 45 25.. 50 30.. 69 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, AUGUST F*aug. = 101.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.08 - 04.09.2011, Forecast on 05 - 12.09.2011, Carrington Rotation 2114 (26,45.08.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=047+11/-9. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 4 TO 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL SMALL. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL 4 SEPTEMBER WHEN NEAR TO WESTERN LIMB THERE WAS A FLARE X-RAY CLASS í3.2, AND A LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 52 CME FROM WHICH 3 WERE TYPE PARTIAL HALO II (SEPTEMBER, 03, 04). --------------------------------------------------------------------- to tm te localization Class å(1-8A) áR RII/IV CME X-ray opt. J/m-2 4.09 1121 1145 >1150 N18W84L304 M3.2/ 1.8E-2 11286 CME/1212 to te central part localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME DSF 02/ 0554 S18E42L212 ? CME/0748 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S10L258 S17L253 S28L258 S20L268 04.09 6 KP,SDO,SOHO... Given CH it was transformed from a gulf subpolar CH 4 solar rotations back. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 2.09/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 06.09. AUGUST 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 SEPTEMBER Wus 066 089 121 119 103 139 114 F10.7 101 101 109 112 115 119 119 èbcg B2.9 B2.4 B2.6 B2.9 B3.3 B4.9 ÷6.3 GOES Sp 195 230 450 590 650 580 540 Nnew 3 1 2 IMF - - - - - /+ + + ACE Å>2 1.9å+6 2.7å+6 3.3å+6 3.7å+6 3.0E+6 1.0å+6 2.7å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 10 3 6 4 3 4 6 áÒ Dst KIOTO Amsc 9 3 2 3 7 9 13 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED on 5 - 9 SEPTEMBER. ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru