THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON SEPTEMBER 2011 HAS MADE Wsep.= 78.0, THAT GIVES FOR 27 MONTH (2011, MARCH) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*mar.= 36.9 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013 THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7 SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6 MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2 HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002. THE 23 SOLAR CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7. The most probable height according to all available information will make current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011, SEPTEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 74 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 85 6.. 58 11.. 61 16..124í 21.. 70 26.. 73 2.. 88 7.. 47 12.. 90 17..104 22.. 71 27.. 67 3.. 91 8.. 35Í 13.. 94 18.. 93 23.. 59 28.. 71 4.. 68 9.. 47 14..110 19.. 92 24.. 75 29.. 83 5.. 74 10.. 52 15..124í 20.. 80 25.. 79 30.. 75 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, SEPTEMBER F*sep. = 133.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.09 - 02.10.2011, Forecast on 03 - 10.10.2011, Carrington Rotation 2115 (22,71.09.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=60+18/-13. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 6 TO 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM IS BIG, FLARE-ACTIVE, BUT AFTER 02.10 IT SIZE IS AVERAGE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 26, 27, 30 AND OCTOBER, 1, 2, AND A LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 42 CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE TYPE HALO. --------------------------------------------------------------------- to tm te ËÏÏ-ÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME ÒÅÎÔ ÏÐ J/m-2 MÇÃ 26.09 0506 0508 0657 N13E34L282 M4.0/1÷ 1.4E-2 11302 IV/1 26.09 1431 1446 1536 N14E30L282 2÷/í2.6 2.1E-2 11302 28.09 1324 1328 1341 N13E03L282 M1.2/1N 2.3E-3 11302 CME 23.09 0236 0200 0239 N25W63L057 M1.6/1N 1.6E-2 11305 CME 30.09 1852 1806 1935 N08E06L248 1F/M1.0 8.1E-3 11305 II/1 01.10 0856 0859 1039 N10W06L248 M1.2/1N 2.9E-2 11305 II/2 II/1 IV/2 02.10 0037 0050 0137 N09W12L248 M3.9/1N 2.8E-2 11305 CME 02.10 1719 1723 1758 N09W25L248 M1.3/SF 2.8E-3 11305 to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME DSF 27/0125 0315 N60E13L281 9 13305 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S10L288 S23L281 S33L291 S22L304 1.10 5 SDO, SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 26/12 ON 28.09/05 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" AND ON 1.10./10-20 UT "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. + / - THE EARTH SHOULD PASS THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDER 07.10. óåîôñâòø 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 ïëôñâòø Wus 103 082 116 099 089 086 092 F10.7 148 139 133 137 138 137 131 èbcg ó1.4 B5.2 ÷3.8 ÷4.0 ÷4.0 ÷5.6 ÷4.9 GOES Sp 1170 1110 1240 920 970 950 760 Nnew IMF -/ + + ± - - -/+ - ACE Å>2 8.1å+6 2.1å+7 1.8å+7 3.8å+7 7.5E+7 2.2å+7 4.7å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 70 30 24 15 8 9 12 áÒ Dst -118 -103 -64 -42 -36 -37 -36 KIOTO Amsc 41 20 18 12 11 16 15 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT 30.09 AND 2.10. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED THE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G4, Ams=80, dur.= 27 h.) IT IS REGISTERED ON SEPTEMBER, 26-27th ACCORDING DATA OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES. ON IZMIRAN DATA THIS MAGNETIC STORM WAS MODERATED (G3, Ams=58, dur. = 18 h.). TWO MORE MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS 28.09 (G1, Ams=34, dur.= 18 h.) AND 29.09 (G0, Ams=24, dur. = 15 h.) ACCORDING DATA TO GEO- MAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THIS WAS ONE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON SEPTEMBER, 27-28th (G1, Ams=24, dur. = 21 h.). 29.09 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HOWEVER THERE ARE 20 % PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM DE- VELOPMENT ON OCTOBER, 4-5th FROM FLARE í3.9 2.10 WITH CME DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH ACCORDING TO STEREO B AND SOHO DATA. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru -- Open WebMail Project (http://openwebmail.org)