Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 09.10.2011,
Forecast on 10 - 17.10.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2015 (22,71.09.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE AVERAGE 
LEVEL, GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THE PERIOD END. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY 
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS 
MADE W=049+11/-12. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT 
FROM 6 TO 7 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK  THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AT LOW LEVEL 6-9 OCTOBER AND AT VERY LOW LEVEL IN 
OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 69 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE OF
TYPE PARTIAL HALO II AND III.

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      to   tm    te  localization    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X-ray opt.  J/m-2             
         to      te  central part localization l(deg.) Fl  AR    CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH  -  N28L172 N18L167 N15L175 N20L186    8.10  1   ëò SOHO SDO....
CH  -  S18L090 S36L079 S40L082 S28L104   15.10  1   ëò SOHO SDO....
Given CH it was transformed from a gulf subpolar CH 4 solar rotations back.
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 5.10/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS ON 23.10.

OCTOBER   03     04     05     06     07     08     09    OCTOBER
Wus      085    065    100    099    088    061    071
F10.7    129    130    127    124    122    118    121
èbcg    ÷3.9   B4.3   ÷5.6   ÷4.4   ÷3.9   ÷3.3   ÷3.0    GOES
Sp       785   1015    850    880    790    450    600
Nnew                                  
IMF       +      +     +/-     -      -      -      -      ACE
Å>2   9.8å+7 1.3å+8 4.0å+7 1.1E+7 4.0å+6 7.0å+6 1.0å+6     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       6      6       20     17     6      6      14     áÒ
Dst                                                        KIOTO
Amsc     8      7       14     8      8      13     9      IZMIRAN
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  THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT  VERY  HIGH 
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED 2 - 4 OCTOBER. THE FLUX BEGINNING - 2.10/1355 UT.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. 

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA ALL PERIOD REMAINED QUIET 
AND UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES OF THE WESTERN 
HEMISPHERE DATA, ON OCTOBER, 5th AFTER ARRIVAL TO THE ENVIRONEMENT SPACE OF 
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE SI 5/0742 UT FROM FLARE OF X-RAY CLASS í3.9/1N 2.10 
IT IS REGISTERED 6 HOUR MAGNETIC SUBSTORM BY INTENSITY G1. 17.10 GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE, AND IN OTHER DAYS - UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru