Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.08 - 04.09.2011,
Forecast on 24 - 31.10.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2015,2016 (22,71.09; 19,99.10..2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD REMAINED BY 21.09 AT HIGH LEVEL, 
HAVING REACHED ON OCTOBER, 20-21th THE GREATEST VALUES FOR THE CURRENT 
SOLAR CYCLE THEN HAS STARTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY. ESTIMATED, RATING, 
WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE 
PERIOD WAS MADE W=101+0/-23. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK TILL 23.10 
CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT 10 - 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS AMONG WHICH ONLY ONE WAS 
THE AVERAGE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL 20-22 SEPTEMBER AND A LOW LEVEL 
IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 65 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE 
TYPE PARTIAL HALO II AND 2 - HALO (22.10).

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      to   tm    te  localization  Class   Å(1-8A)  ÂR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X-ray opt.  J/m-2             
20.10 0310 0325 >0344            M1.6/   2.2E-2            IV/1
21.10 1253 1300 >1308            M1.3/   7.4E-3       II/1 IV/1
22.10 1000 1118 >1309 N25W77L058 M1.3/SF 1.1E-1 11314          CME/H
         to      te  central part localization l þ úôâä. Fl AR    CME
DSF 22/0058                                                    CME/H
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH  -  N28L352 N25L342 N20L353 N25L357  23.10   1   ëò SOHO SDO....
CH  +  S20L272 S32L257 S35L270 S24L277  29.10   1   ëò SOHO SDO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 5.10/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS ON 23.10.

OCTOBER   17     18     19     20     21     22     23    OCTOBER
Wus      165    155    162    195    207    164    128
F10.7    153    147    147    159    168    164    156
èbcg    ÷9.8   B8.6   ÷7.8   ÷8.6   ÷9.9   ÷9.3   ÷7.6    GOES
Sp      1170   1030   1390   1490   1440   1010    810
Nnew      2             1      3      1      1      1
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      ACE
Å>2   1.6å+6 2.2å+6 1.9å+6 2.2E+6 1.7å+6 1.8å+6 3.8å+6     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       3      5       7      6      6      2      2      áÒ
Dst                                                        KIOTO
Amsc     7      3       5      10     8      5      9      IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT 
EXPECTED. 

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER; SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru