Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 24 - 30.10.2011,
Forecast on 31.10 - 06.11.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2016 (19,99.10.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD REMAINED AT AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD  WAS  MADE W=60+15/-16. ON THE VISIBLE 
DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY  WERE PRESENT 6 - 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS AMONG 
WHICH ONLY ONE WAS BIG, AND AFTER 25.10 - AVERAGE ON THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A LOW LEVEL. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 
66 CME FROM WHICH 6 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II".

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      to   tm    te  localization  Class   Å(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X-ray opt.  J/m-2             
         to      te  central part localization l in deg. Fl AR    CME
DSF26/~0930             ~N12W38               C1.2 11334  CME/1000 UT
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH  +  S20L272 S32L257 S35L270 S24L277  30.10   1   ëò SOHO SDO....
CH  -  N18L175 N10L173 S15L194 S04L209  30.10   2   ëò 
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 29.10/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE ISLAND + POLARITY ALSO WAS OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD WITH 24
/22 ON 26/01 UT. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY-/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 
1.11.

OCTOBER   24     25     26     27     28     29     30    OCTOBER
Wus      125    121    104    098    104    073    080
F10.7    145    139    132    132    134    123    127
èbcg    ÷5.4   B4.8   ÷4.3   ÷3.4   ÷5.0   ÷4.3   ÷5.0    GOES
Sp      1240    990    690    730    650    530    500
Nnew      1                    1                    1
IMF      -/ +    +    +/ -     -      -     -/+     +      ACE
Å>2   2.0å+6 8.3å+5 7.0å+5 7.0E+5 7.9å+5 8.5å+5 7.8å+5     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       26     32      2      4      2      2      5      áÒ
Dst     -55   -134     -45    -36    -25    -10    -11     KIOTO
Amsc     19     24      8      7      5      6      10     IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT 
EXPECTED. 

AFTER ARRIVAL OF INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE SI 24/1832 UT, 24 - 25.10 
ACCORDING  TO THE WESTERN GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES DATA  THE  MAJOR  
MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=79, dur.= 15 Þ.) AND MODERATED (G2, Ams = 56,
dur.= 12 Þ.)  ACCORDING  TO IZMIRAN DATA. IN OTHER DAYS  GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER; SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru