Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 07 - 13.11.2011, Forecast on 14 - 21.11.2011, Carrington Rotations 2016, 2017 (19,99.10; 16.30.11.2011) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD CHANGED FROM HIGH TO MODERATE. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=095+30/-19. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT 6 - 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE BIG AND ONE AVERAGE SIZE. áR11339 N22l117, CMP 7.11.2011, Sp max=1540 m.v.h., EKC, D) - LEFT FROM E-LIMB 31.10 QUITE GENERATED BY VERY BIG SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALREADY 2-3. 11 (23 h.) HAS MADE ONE LARGE (è1.9) AND 3 FLARES OF AVERAGE X-RAY CLASS. THE MODERATE LEVEL OF AR ACTIVITY REMAINED AND ON NOVEMBER, 4-5. AFTER NOVEMBER, 6th THE SUNSPOT GROUP GRADUALLY DECREASED AND FOR WES- TERN LIMB LEAVES THE SUNSPOT GROUP OF THE AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND MODERATE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AVERAGE LEVEL ON NOVEMBER, 9th AND ON LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 36 CME, AMONG WHICH 1 THERE WERE TYPE "çáìï" (08.11) AND 8 TYPES "PARTIAL çáìï II AND III". --------------------------------------------------------------------- to tm te ËÏÏ-ÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME ÒÅÎÔ ÏÐ J/m-2 MÇÃ 09.11 1304 1335 >412 N24E35L102 M1.1/SF 3.3E-2 11343 II/2 DSF CME/1336 to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME DSF 7.11/ 2232 0159 N30W30L139 25 CME DSF 8.11/<2317 <1558 N23E49L047 20 11342 DSF 9.11/>1020 <2150 N22E44L039 8 CME --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 6.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 20.11. NOVEMBER 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 NOVEMBER Wus 154 160 208 164 127 155 142 F10.7 182 181 180 179 174 169 155 èbcg ÷7.6 B6.7 B6.5 ÷6.9 ÷7.7 ÷7.2 ÷6.8 GOES Sp 2100 1570 2142 1950 1240 1560 1230 Nnew 1 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 1.4å+7 9.6å+6 6.0å+6 9.2E+6 8.0å+6 1.2å+7 9.6å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 4 8 2 2 1 2 1 áÒ Dst KIOTO Amsc 6 10 7 8 8 7 6 IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru