Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.11.2011,
Forecast on 21 - 28.11.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2016 (19,99.11.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE 
CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=
081+25/-20. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN  CONSTANTLY  THERE ARE 
FROM 12 TO 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL SMALL.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

  FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN MIDDLE LEVEL 15 NOVEMBER AND A LOW LEVEL 
IN OTHER DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 72 CME FROM WHICH ONE
WAS HALO TYPE (IV - 17.11) AND 7 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" II.

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      to   tm    te    localiz.   Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X/opt. J/m-2             
15.11 0859 0912  0933 N20W74L087 SF/M1.6 1.0E-2  11348           
15.11 1230 1248 >1250 S17T30L338 M1.9/SF 1.9E-2  11346      
15.11 2227 2235 >2242 N20W80L087 M1.1/SF 6.1E-3  11348

DSF     to      te     c/p localiz. l in deg.  Fl  AR        CME
14.11/     0058           S24W37        13           CME/2036/630km/s
16.11/<1015    <2210      S06E03         6
17.11/ 1521     1644      S20W37        19 
20.11 <1448                NW                        CME/1448/163km/s
c/p localiz. - central part localization 
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end     EE    R   Observatories
CH  +  N65L352 N55L342 N29L353 N31L357  18.11  2   ëò SOHO SDO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 6.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS ON 24.11.

NOVEMBER  14     15     16     17     18     19     20    NOVEMBER
Wus      176    137    126    122    137    149    101
F10.7    161    148    142    148    144    140    140
èbcg    ÷8.4   ó1.0   ÷9.5   ÷7.6   ÷6.9   ÷6.5   ÷6.0    GOES
Sp       900    840   1020    760    700    690    620
Nnew      4             1      2      1      1      1
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      ACE
Å>2   1.0å+7 6.7å+6 4.7å+6 7.3E+6 9.4å+6 1.2å+7 1.2å+7     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       0      5       1      2      2      1      2      áÒ
Dst                                                        KIOTO
Amsc     5      9       7      6      7      7      6      IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT 
EXPECTED. 

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru