Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 21 - 26.11.2011,
Forecast on 27.11 - 05.12.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2016 (19,99.11.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE 
CONFIDENT AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=
080+33/-19. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN  CONSTANTLY  THERE ARE 
FROM 7 TO 10 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM IS AVERAGE SIZE, HOWEVER
MOST HAVE REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=070+10/-10.

  FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE 
REGISTRED >50 CME FROM WHICH WAS 1 HALO AND 4 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HA-
LO" II.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
      to   tm    te    localiz.   Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X/opt. J/m-2             

DSF     to      te     c/p localiz. l in deg.  Fl  AR        CME
21.11 <1957                NW                     CME/0048
26.11  0609             ~N20W50L265  ~10      C1.2 11353 CME/0848 Pr
c/p localiz. - central part localization 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end     EE    R   Observatories
CH  +  S32L220 S45L219 S47L225 S42L230  29.11   2   SOHO SDO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 6.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD 
PASS ON 27.11.

NOVEMBER  21     22     23     24     25     26       NOVEMBER
Wus      101    132    123    139    171    133    
F10.7    141    142    140    137    135    133    
èbcg    ÷5.1   ÷4.8   ÷4.4   ÷3.9   ÷4.5   ÷3.9       GOES
Sp       780    730    670    750    700    650    
Nnew             1             1      2             
IMF       -      -      -      -      -      -        ACE
Å>2   5.4å+6 1.3å+6 1.1å+6 1.3E+6 1.1å+6 6.3å+6       GOES
Nm%                                                   THULE
Ap       5      7       6      5      4      2        áÒ
Dst                                                   KIOTO
Amsc     9      10      8      6      9      7        IZMIRAN
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MINOR (S1) SOLAR PROTON EVENT OBSERVED NOVEMBER, 26:
Pr (>10 MeV) 26/~08 UT; max 26/2055 - 54 p.f.u (preliminary).
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. 

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK 28 IN MIDDLE OF DAY IN REPLY TO THE DISTURBATION WHICH 
HAS COME TO THE EARTH FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 26.11 IT POSSIBLE THE
MAGNETIC STORM. IT PROBABILITY ~40%. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CON-
DITIONS IS EXPECTED REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. 


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru

THE NEXT ISSUE OF FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON DECEMBER 12