Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.12.2011,
Forecast on 19 - 26.12.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2017, 2118 (16,30.11, 13,61.12.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD  WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTE-
RNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=065+18/-25. ON THE 
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE ARE FROM 9 TO 5 SUNSPOT 
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH HAD MIDDLE AREA. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED TO BE THE 
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=
050+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 25.12, ON VERY LOW - 19.12 
AND ON LOW -  IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR THE 
PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 72 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE 
TYPE "PARTIAL çáìï": 7 CLASSES II (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) 
AND 1 CLASS III (angular width 180 - 270 deg.). 

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to   tm    te    localiz.   Class E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X/opt. J/m-2             
25.12/1811 1816  1911 S22W26L225  M4/1N 1.2E-2 11387 IV/3 II/2 CME

DSF     to      te     c/p localiz. l in deg.  Fl  AR        CME 
25.12/<2238   >1701  N18W16lL218      14                     CME     
c/p localiz. - central part localization 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +  S24L196 S40L142    Ps    S30L200   28.12   2   SDO, SOHO, ....
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 19.12/04 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 
ON 27-28.12.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER  19     20     21     22     23     24     25    DECEMBER
Wus      133    139    093    105    123    101    066     
F10.7    128    137    145    146    138    143    144     
èbcg    ÷3.6   ÷5.1   ÷7.8   ÷7.0   ÷4.7   ÷5.7    ÷5.8  GOES
Sp       400    510    530    990   1040    840    590 
Nnew      1      1                    1             1             
IMF     + /-     -      -      -      -      -      +    ACE
Å>2   1.4å+6 1.1å+6 1.2å+6 8.3E+5 9.1å+5 9.6å+5 8.8å+5   GOES
Nm%                                                      THULE
Ap       4      2       3      1      0      1      1    áÒ
Dst                                                      ëIOTO
Amsc     11     9       11     7      9      8      8    IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. 

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK IN SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER, 28th TO THE EARTH WILL APPROACH 
DISTURBANCES FROM FLARE í4 AND FILAMENT EJECTION 25.12. DURING THE SA-
ME TIME THE EARTH WILL BE INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE 
SOLAR WIND FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE'S CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE 
MAGNETIC STORM 28-29.11 NOT LESS THAN 40 %. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru