Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 15.01.2012,
Forecast on 16 - 23.01.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2118, 2119 (13,61.12.2011; 09,94.01.2012)


SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD  WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTE-
RNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE PERIOD  WAS MADE W=055+32/-19. ON THE 
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT FROM 3 TO 9 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE BIG SIZE. FROM 14.01, WHEN ON THE 
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN THERE WERE AT ONCE  4  ACTIVE REGIONS, 
NEW IMPULSE OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN.

 NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  IS  EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. 
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE  OF SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=070+10/-20.

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 14.01  AND  ON LOW IN 
OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT  WAS 
OBSERVED 60 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE ONE TYPE "HALO" 
(12.01) AND 3 - TIPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (angular width 90-180 deg.). 

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FLARES to   tm    te   c/p local.  Class E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X/opt. J/m-2             
14.01/1314 1318 >11320 n15e73L215 M1.0/  3.0E-3  11401

DSF     to      te     c/p localiz. l in deg.  Fl    AR         CME 
09.01/>2020     <2114   N17E54L310     05           11395  
12.01/<0914     <2303   S37E61L253     09                   CME/phH
12.01/     ~2130        N26E18L302     ?            11397   CME/phII            
c/p local. - central part localization 
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +  S19L004 S23L353 S30L070 S23L006   12.01   1   KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH -  N22L312 N20L309 S03L311 N13L320   16.01   1   KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH -  S10L309 S13L305 S18L310 S15L311   17.01   1   KP, SDO, SOHO...
CH -  S40L260 S47L246 S50L248 S45L263   20.01   1   KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

WITH 14.01/00 ON 15/0330 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NUMEROUS CHANGE OF THE SIGN ON JANUARY, 12-
13th WAS OBSERVED.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY  - / +  THE EARTH 
SHOULD PASS 23.01.

JANUARY   09     10     11     12     13     14     15   JANUARY
Wus      090    063    064    057    081    145    141     
F10.7    142    129    120    117    124    132    134     
èbcg    ÷4.8   ÷4.0   ÷5.4   ÷5.1   ÷4.9   ÷5.9   ÷6.9   GOES
Sp      1180    980    920    380    285    510    665 
Nnew                           1      2      4      1                
IMF       -      -      -     +/-    -/+  +/-/+    +/-   ACE
Å>2   3.6å+6 5.1å+6 7.4E+6 1.3å+7 3.8å+6 3.4å+6 3.8å+6   GOES
Nm%                                                      THULE
Ap       7      4       4      5      6      2      3    áÒ
Dst                                                      ëIOTO
Amsc     7      7       8      7      5      3      4    IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. 

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru