Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.01.2012, Forecast on 23 - 30.01.2012, Carrington Rotations 2119 (09,94.01.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTE- RNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=060+31/-17. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT FROM 4 TO 9 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH TWO OF BIG SIZE. THE BASIC AND SIGNIFI- CANT FLARE ACTIVITY HAS CONCENTRATED IN THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS (CAR) AR11401+02+05+07 IN WHICH FIRST TWO SUNSPOT GROUPS TILL JANUARY, 19th WERE BIG. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHE, AVE- RAGE AND LOW. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 17-19.01 AND ON LOW IN OTHER DAYS. ON JANUARY, 19TH IN CAR HAS OCCURRED LONG GEOEFFECTIVE FLARE OF X-CLASS í3.2 AND 23/0325 UT LARGE FLARE X-RAY CLASS í9 IN THE SAME AR WAS OCCURED. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERI- OD IT WAS OBSERVED 38 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE ONE TYPE "HALO" (19.01) AND 2 - TIPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (angular width 90-180 deg.). --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 17.01/0441 0453 0519 N18E54L212 M1.0/1N 1.1E-2 11402 18.01/1904 1912 2018 N17E33L212 M1.7/1N 1.5E-2 11402 19.01/1344 1605 2001 N32E22L212 M3.2/SF 2.7E-1 11402 IV/1 CME /1524 1607 2001 N30E30L212 /2N 11402 II/1 IV/1 CME/H DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S16L150 S40L115 Ps S30L160 28-29.01 3 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N50L157 N45L135 N35L175 N45L178 27-28.01 2 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 15/0330 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 23.01. JANUARY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 JANUARY Wus 120 152 122 117 088 102 103 F10.7 140 139 148 157 141 142 141 èbcg C1.0 ÷5.2 ÷5.7 ÷5.9 ÷6.0 ÷4.9 ÷5.5 GOES Sp 1070 1270 1130 1140 780 930 790 Nnew 2 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 1.3å+6 9.7å+5 1.4E+6 1.9å+6 1.8å+6 1.8å+6 1.2å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 8 5 3 2 2 6 22 áÒ Dst -14 -76 ëIOTO Amsc 13 8 6 4 6 6 28 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR PROTON EVENT S3 BEGIN AT 23/0855 UT AFTER FLARE M9: IN PROGRES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED TO FIRST HALF 22.01, WHEN AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE (ACE 22/ 0514 UT), CORRESPONDING SUDDEN IMPULSE SI 22/0614 UT, ON THE EARTH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS OBSERVED (G1, Ams=33, dur.= 21 h.) AC- CORDING TO éúíéòáî DATA AND (G1, Ams=27, dur.=21 Þ.) ACCORDING TO THE SPACE WEATHER CENTER IN BOULDER. THE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECAME FLARE X-RAY CLASS í3.2 ON JANUARY, 19th. IT IS NECESSARY TO NOTICE THAT ONE MORE SI 21/0614 UT HAS BEEN REGISTERED. ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK AT NIGHT 24.01 OR IN THE FIRST HALF 25.01 IN ENVIRONEMENT COMES THE DISTURBATION OF M9 FLARE (Vcme-2200 km/s) 23.01. PROBABI- LITY OF MAGNETIC STORM AT LEAST 70%. ON 26.01 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru