Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 29.01.2012, Forecast on 30.01 - 06.02.2012, Carrington Rotations 2119, 2120 (09,94.01; 06,28.02.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=041+24/ -21. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT FROM 3 TO 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE OF AVERAGE SIZE. THE BA- SIC AND SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO BE LOCALIZED IN THE COMPLEX ACTIVE REGIONS (CAR) AR11401+02+05+07 WHICH 27.9 HAS COMPLETELY LEFT FOR WESTERN LIMB. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE AND LOW. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL 23, 27.01, ON LOW - 24, 26, 28.01 AND VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. ON JANUARY, 23th IN CAR HAS OC- CURRED LONG GEOEFFECTIVE LARGE FLARE OF X-CLASS í8.7 AND 27/1737 UT LARGE FLARE X-RAY CLASS X1.7. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 31 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH WERE 3 TYPE "HALO" (23, 26, 27.01) AND 2 - TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" II AND III. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 123.01/0256 0359 0553 N28W21L212 M8.7/2B 2.0E-1 11402 IV/2 CME/H 27.01/1737 1837 1913 N27W71L212 X1.7/1F 1.5E-2 11402 II/3 IV/2 CME/H DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW AND MAY BE AVE- RAGE (~20%) LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED : --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S16L150 S40L115 Ps S30L160 28-29.01 3 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N50L157 N45L135 N35L175 N45L178 27-28.01 2 SDO, SOHO... CH + N55L114 N30L088 N15L097 N40L116 31.01 2 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N16L010 S13L056 S15L059 N11L076 02.02 2 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 24/2130 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 01.02. JANUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 JANUARY Wus 108 105 068 055 039 034 074 F10.7 144 136 126 128 142 115 110 èbcg ÷6.0 ÷5.8 ÷4.9 ÷7.3 ÷5.2 ÷5.9 ÷2.7 GOES Sp 740 880 350 510 290 210 290 Nnew 1 1 2 IMF - -/+ +/-/+ + + + + ACE Å>2 1.4å+7 2.5å+8 5.3E+7 1.6å+7 5.5å+7 7.1å+7 3.6å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 8 15 15 6 8 5 4 áÒ Dst -78 -45 -79 -43 -35 -30 -26 ëIOTO Amsc 10 17 13 6 7 8 10 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- THE BIGGEST SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE HAS BEGUN AFTER FLARE í8.7: Pr (E>10 MeV) - to 23/0530 UT, tm -23/2330 UT - 6310 p.f.u.; THE PROTON EVENT OF THE CURRENT CYCLE SECOND FOR INTENSITY HAS BEGUN AFTER FLARE è1.7: Pr (E>10 MeV) - to 27/1905 UT, tm -28/2005 UT - 796 p.f.u., te -; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED 24-25 AND 27-28.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE BEGINNING OF DAY OF JANUARY, 23rd THE MAGNETIC STORM 22.01 RECESSION WAS OBSERVED, BUT ALREADY 24.01 IN SECOND HALF OF DAY DISTURBANCE FROM FLARE X-RAY CLASS í8.7 (SI 24/1504 UT) HAS COME. AFTER WHICH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 25, dur.= 21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA HAS DEVELOPPED. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS WAS 0NLY SUBSTORM (G1, dur.=9 h.). IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru