Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 20 - 26.02.2012, Forecast on 27.02 - 05.03.2012, Carrington Rotations 2120 (06,28.02.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=031+10/-12. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT FROM 4 TO 2 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 52 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH 4 WAS TIPE "PARTIAL HALO" II. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X/opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME 23.02 0746 NW CME/0824/512km/s 24.02 0225 0348 N32E38L269 26 CME/0346/1019km/s 24.02 1911 SE CME/1948/529km/s c/p local. - central part localization --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S18L066 S21L078 S032L098 S25L100 24.02 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH + N18L066 N05L065 N00L066 N10L073 18-19.02 3 SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 01/23 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 20.02. FEBRUARY 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 FEBRUARY Wus 072 061 031 052 047 047 058 F10.7 111 103 104 103 109 108 107 èbcg ÷2.4 ÷2.1 ÷1.8 ÷2.2 ÷2.7 ÷2.5 ÷2.3 GOES Sp 370 390 270 280 300 310 290 Nnew 1 1 2 IMF - - -/+ + + + + ACE Å>2 2.1å+7 1.2å+8 3.9E+7 3.2å+7 3.4å+7 3.1å+7 3.2å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 18 7 8 3 5 6 7 áÒ Dst -34 -28 -22 -14 -11 -8 -12 ëIOTO Amsc 16 6 9 4 5 9 8 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AT APPROXIMATELY 25/0330 UT AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 4.6 pfu at 26/0055 UT AND CON- TINUED TO BE ENHANCED BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. THE EVENT LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM A BACKSIDE FLARE EVENT: Pr(E>10 MeV) - to - 25/0330 UT; max 4.6 pfu - 26/0055 UT; continued. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED FEBRUARY, 20 - 21st. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE 20.02, ALTHOUGH SUDDEN IMPULSES WAS REGISTERED 22.02/0223 UT AND 26.02/2141 UT (20 AND 19 nT- Boul- der). IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru