Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 12 - 18.03.2012, Forecast on 19 - 26.03.2012, Carrington Rotations 2121 (04,62.03.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=049 +12/-17. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 6 TO 4 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH IS GRADUALLY LESSENING, HAD AVERAGE SIZE: AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. ON 7.03, XRI=11.92, X/3+M/12) - IT APPEARANCE FROM EASTERN LIMB 3.02. WITH AR11430 (N19L315, Sp = 200 m.v.h. ON 7.03) WAS A SET THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS. SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY STARTED MARCH, 4th. AFTER THE CAO DIS- SOLUTION AT 12.03 IN AR11429 OCCURENCED ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT FLA- RE OF X-RAY CLASS M7.3 ON MARCH 13. THEN IT SHOWED ENOUGH FAST DEGRADATION AND PASSED FOR THE WESTERN LIMB 17.03 A SUNSPOT GROUP OF SMALL SIZE. TO 14.03 IN COMPLEX OF AR OCCURENCED X-RAY CLASS X - 3, CLASS M - 13 FLARES, 6 OF WHICH WAS A LARGE. By Mac-Intosh the active region flare index is calculated on solar flares X-ray classes, and classes X gives units (X=5.4 gives 5.4) and class M gives the decimal (M 7.3 gives 0.73). NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT MARCH, 13, MIDDLE - 14 AND 17.03 AND LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 28 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE "HALO" (17.03) AND 3 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" (13, 15, 16.03). ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te ËÏÏ-ÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 MÇÃ 13.03 1635 1722 2046 N19W59L299 X7.3/ 2.4E-1 11429 II/3 IV/3 CME 14.03 1508 1521 1615 N14W11L221 M2.8/1N 2.9E-2 11429 17.03 2032 2039 2053 S20W25L211 M1.3/SF 3.6E-3 11434 II/2 DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 13.03 >0008 <1715 N14W03L231 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N18L238 S07L225 S20L228 S00L244 16.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 12.02/17 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 21.03. MARCH 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 MARCH Wus 089 080 075 085 104 089 054 F10.7 115 141 119 111 099 102 102 èbcg B4.7 ÷4.4 B7.6 ÷4.7 ÷2.4 ÷2.0 ÷2.4 GOES Sp 650 650 530 370 330 210 260 Nnew 1 1 1 IMF + /- - - - - - - ACE Å>2 2.2å+7 8.8å+7 5.9E+8 2.0å+8 2.2å+8 2.4å+8 5.5å+8 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 31 11 7 31 18 20 11 áÒ Dst -55 -49 -42 -78 -56 -66 -57 ëIOTO Amsc 22 11 9 28 24 21 11 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT (S3) BEGAN AT MARCH, 13 AFTER FLARE M7.3: Pr >10 MeV: 13.03/1810UT, ÍÁËÓ. 469 p.f.u. 13/2045UT, te-10/1650UT. Pr >100 MeV: 13/1810 UT, ÍÁËÓ. 1 p.f.u., te - 13/2255 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 12 - 18. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT MARCH, 19 - 21. THE LEVEL OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams = 46, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER OBSERVED MARCH, 12. SINCE MIDDAY OF MARCH, 15 NEXT MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=51, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=47, dur.=15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER WAS OBSERVED. THESE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ARE THE RESULT OF FLARE EVENTS 10 AND 13 MARCH. MARCH, 17, GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BEEN ACTIVE (CH EFFECT), AND IN OTHER DAYS - UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru