------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2012 HAS MADE Wmarch.= 64.2, THAT GIVES FOR 33 MONTH (2011, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep.= 59.5 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 18Í 6.. 85 11.. 86í 16.. 63 21.. 57 26.. 65 31.. 66 2.. 20 7.. 79 12.. 86í 17.. 65 22.. 52 27.. 62 3.. 47 8.. 72 13.. 71 18.. 46 23.. 53 28.. 65 4.. 64 9.. 82 14.. 63 19.. 55 24.. 70 29.. 79 5.. 80 10.. 77 15.. 65 20.. 64 25.. 66 30.. 66 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, MARCH F*march. = 114.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.03 - 01.04.2012, Forecast on 02 - 09.04.2012, Carrington Rotations 2121, 2122 (31,93.03; 04,28.04.2012) SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=050 +13/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 6 TO 4 QUTE SUN- SPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVELS ALL PERIOD. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 45 CORONAL MASS EJEC- TION AMONG WHICH 10 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO III AND II" (26 - 28 AND 30.03). ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te ËÏÏ-ÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) áï RII/IV CME ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 MÇÃ DSF to te ËÏÏÒÄ.ÃÅÎÔÒÁ l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl Aï CME 29.03 1500 1656 N41W03L033 11 29.03 <1602 >1621 N46E11L019 22 01.04 <0914 <1431 N35E29L320 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N42L002 N35L357 N30L007 N33L014 03.04 3 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH + N30L022 N28L017 N12L029 N14L030 02.04 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH + S23L329 S25L325 S30L327 S25L335 05.04 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 25.03/2130 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 04.04. MARCH 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 APRIL Wus 056 063 070 100 093 069 050 F10.7 102 106 107 112 111 110 107 èbcg B1.8 ÷2.6 B3.0 ÷2.5 ÷1.9 ÷2.6 ÷1.9 GOES Sp 300 330 310 370 370 290 200 Nnew 1 1 1 2 IMF - - - - - - - ACE Å>2 1.3å+7 4.4å+6 2.4E+6 1.1å+7 2.1å+6 5.8å+6 2.9å+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 4 19 12 3 4 4 6 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 8 14 13 7 9 10 9 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS BEEN UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru