------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON APRIL 2012 HAS MADE Wapr.= 55.2, THAT GIVES FOR 34 MONTH (2011, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*oct.= 59.9 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, APRIL ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 18Í 6.. 85 11.. 86í 16.. 63 21.. 57 26.. 65 31.. 66 2.. 20 7.. 79 12.. 86í 17.. 65 22.. 52 27.. 62 3.. 47 8.. 72 13.. 71 18.. 46 23.. 53 28.. 65 4.. 64 9.. 82 14.. 63 19.. 55 24.. 70 29.. 79 5.. 80 10.. 77 15.. 65 20.. 64 25.. 66 30.. 66 THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, APRIL F*apr. = 113.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.04 - 06.05.2012, Forecast on 07 - 13.05.2012, CARRINGTON ROTATION 2123 (28,19.04.2012) SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF LAST WEEK REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=060+04/-07. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS THE HIGHE SIZE. IT APPEARED FROM EAST LIMB ON TOP DEVELOPMENT ON MAY, 4 (AR11476 - N09L188, Sp=760 m.v.h.) AND IT THE LEVEL OF FLARE ACTIVITY WAS MODERATED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN- TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY AT 4 - 5.05 WAS ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 29 (UP MAY,3rd) CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AMONG WHICH THE ONE WAS THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (3.05). ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 04.05 1319 1323 1332 N13å82L188 M1.0/SN 5.5E-3 11476 04.05 2256 2301 >2304 N09å75L188 M1.3/SF 3.6E-3 11476 05.05 0112 0118 >0120 n09å75L188 M1.1/ 2.3E-3 11476 05.05 1741 1747 1826 N10E64L188 M1.3/1N 4.4E-3 11476 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 02.05 1548 1620 S17W31L312 07 SF 11469 02.05 1007 NW 07 CME/1336 04.05 1740 1814 N15E55L199 07 04.05 1914 2056 N15W32L286 05 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + S37L281 S40L273 S50L281 S40L286 04.05 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... CH - N45L197 N35L195 S30L218 S15L235 09.05 4 KP, SDO, SOHO... "+" CH is possibly the beach of near polar coronal hole; R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 02.05/20 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 08.05. APRIL 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 MAY Wus 104 099 096 107 101 088 104 F10.7 114 110 116 114 114 116 117 èbcg B4.3 ÷3.3 B2.8 ÷3.4 ÷3.9 ÷6.7 ÷5.4 GOES Sp 710 610 590 540 510 610 1055 Nnew 1 1 1 1 IMF - - -/+ + + + + ACE Å>2 3.6å+8 3.69+8 2.2E+8 9.2å+6 4.4å+6 1.6å+7 2.0å+7 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 2 3 8 8 4 4 5 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 6 6 12 8 7 8 7 IZMIRAN --------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED FROM 25.04/0220 UT ON 30.04-1.05. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON MAY, 11-13. LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK ON MAY 9 THE EARTH WILL BE PASSED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM HUGE CORONAL HOLE STRETCHED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK FROM N45 TO S30. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON MAY 9-10 NOT LESS THAN 80 %. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNE- TIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru