--------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2012 HAS MADE Wapr.= 69.0, THAT GIVES FOR 35 MONTH (2011, NOVEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*nov.= 61.1 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- 09 - 12.2012 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012, MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 68 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 69 6.. 62 11.. 79 16.. 98í 21.. 79 26.. 57 31.. 64 2.. 68 7.. 57 12.. 72 17.. 79 22.. 57 27.. 59 3.. 69 8.. 61 13.. 75 18.. 73 23.. 55 28.. 78 4.. 62 9.. 65 14.. 85 19.. 78 24.. 62 29.. 56 5.. 63 10.. 69 15.. 87 20.. 83 25.. 67 30.. 52Í THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, MAY F*may = 121.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.05 - 02.06.2012, Forecast on 03 - 11.06.2012, Carrington Rotations 2124 (25,42.05.2012) SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN ENTIRE PERIOD OF LAST WEEK WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM FOR (THE PERIOD 28.05 - 02.06) WAS MADE W=057+34/-13. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE PRESENT 5-8 SMALL QUIET SUNSPOT GROUP. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=060+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 32 CME ON AMONG WHOM WERE 3 OF PARTIAL HALO II TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 28.05 0530 0847 N24W44L351 9 óíå/0800 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N62L315 N35L272 N25L320 N42L355 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. low latitude part CH N25L325 31-1.06 CH - N42L198 N26L196 S10L228 N05L241 6 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - S18L230 S38L219 S38L219 S25L235 6 KP, SDO, SOHO.. Two last - one CH divided by small AR; R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 21.05/08 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS, HOWEVER IN PERIOD 24/1235 - 26/10 UT IT WAS OBSERVED MAINLY "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 29.05. MAY 28 29 30 31 01 02 JUNE Wus 087 073 078 073 151 113 F10.7 110 106 111 117 129 129 èbcg B2.1 ÷2.4 B3.6 ÷5.4 ÷5.8 ÷4.3 GOES Sp 480 460 400 330 840 630 Nnew 3 3 IMF -/ + + + + +/- -/+/- ACE Å>2 1.1å+8 6.3E+7 1.1E+7 1.2å+7 6.1å+7 1.0å+8 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 6 6 6 10 6 9 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 10 8 11 12 10 15 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED FROM 24.05/1235 UT 28 - 29.05. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 7 - 12.06. LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK ON JUNE 5-6 THE EARTH WILL BE PASSED INTO THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CORONAL HOLE STRETCHED ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK FROM N42 TO S38. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ON THESE DAYS NOT LESS THAN 80%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru