Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.07.2012 , Forecast on 16 - 23.07.2012, Carrington Rotation 2125, 2126 (21,62.06; 18.82.07.2012) SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=074+8/-18. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT 3 - 5 SUNSPOT GROUP ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE: AR11520 (S15L088, Sp = 1070 m.v.h. ON 8.07)- it was formed on the visible disk 06.07 near east limb. Fast development in big sun- spots observed for third day, however till July 12 occurrenced 5 flares of middle X-ray class and only 12.07 in it occurred large flare X-ray class X1.4 with all the dynamic phenomena. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVE- RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC- TED W=060+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL AT 12.07, THE AVERAGE LEVEL - 9-10 AND 13.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 47 CME AMONG WHICH 2 WAS TYPE OF "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 09.07 2303 2307 >2311 s17e38L088 M1.1/ 2.8E-3 11520 10.07 0458 0414 0531 S16E35L088 M1.7/SF 2.4E-3 11520 10.07 0605 0627 0731 S17E30L088 M2.0/1F 3.3E-2 11520 12.07 1537 1649 2041 S15W01L088 X1.4/2B 4.6E-1 11520 II/2 IV/2 CME 14.07 0426 0458 0526 S16W25L096 1F/M1.0 6.1E-3 11521 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 11.07 >0841 ~0930 <2330 N18E39L057 27 CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE- VELS. LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR11520 ONLY IN CASE OF THE SIGNI- FICANT MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE THAT IS IMPROBABLE AND BESIDES ON JULY 19 THIS AR WILL LEAVE THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK. AT THE SAME TIME THE BACKGROUND OF X-RAY RADIATION FROM THE BEGINNING OF DAYS 16.07 SIGNI- FICANTLY INCREASES THAT POINTS TO EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX IN ONE OF ARs. IT CAN CHANGE THE FLARE SITUATION. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N48L154 N46L130 N18L154 N25L167 09.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO... óî ? N30L051 N28L049 N20L058 N23L061 17.07 1 SDO, SOHO, GOES13 R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 09.07/20 TO 15.07/0530 UT UT EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE IN- TERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 20.07. JULY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 JULY Wus 137 122 094 132 112 120 134 F10.7 174 173 162 165 147 148 141 èbcg ó2.0 ó1.4 é9.0 ÷7.0 ÷8.2 ÷8.7 ÷6.5 GOES Sp 1860 1640 1510 1750 1270 1390 1440 N 1 2 1 IMF -/+ + + + + + +/- ACE Å>2 1.3å+7 3.9E+7 6.8E+7 8.3å+7 1.6å+8 2.2å+8 3.6E+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 31 12 10 12 3 14 57 áÒ Dst -72 -55 -27 -23 -15 -1 -133 ëIOTO Amsc 30 13 11 10 7 16 56 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR PROTON EVENT (S3) IS OBSERVED AFTER X-RAY CLASS X1.4 FLARE 12.07: Pr (E>10 MeV) -12/1835 UT; tmax=96 p.f.u. -12/2225 UT; te-15/0200 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 11.07/1055 UT TO 14.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 17 - 21.07. LAST WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ON LEVEL OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM ON JULY 9-10 (G1, Ams=30, dur.=27 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G2, Ams = 39, dur.= 24 h.) ACCORDING DATA OF IZMIRAN. LARGE FLARE BECAME ON JULY 5 THE SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE. SE- COND LONG MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=?, dur.>33 h.) TO IZMIRAN'S DATA AND (G3, Ams =?, dur.>36 h.) BY DATA OF BOULDER IS LAST. THIS STORM - THE CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE FLARE è1.4 12.07. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC ACTI- VITY REMAINED UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND LOW. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru