Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.08.2012, Forecast on 20 - 27.08.2012, Carrington Rotation 2126, 2127 (18,82.07; 15,04.08.2012) SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=030+14/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 2-5 SUNSPOT GROUP ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND AVE- RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL ON 18 AUGUST, AVERAGE LEVEL - ON 17.08, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 66 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE "HALO" (M5.5), 3 CME -"PARTIAL HALO III" AND 6 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II". ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 17.08 1312 1319 >1321 n19N90L232 M2.4/ 6.9E-3 11548 óíå 17.08 1708 1720 >1723 n19N90L232 M1.0/ 6.1E-3 11548 óíå 18.08 0024 0102 0119 N19E86L232 M5.5/SF 2.9E-2 11548 óíå/0136 18.08 0304 0323 0341 N19E86L232 M1.8/SN 8.1E-3 11548 óíå 18.08 1602 1607 1615 N19E86L232 í1.0/1N 3.8å-3 11548 óíå 18.08 2246 2254 2310 N19E78L232 í1.0/SF 5.1å-3 11548 óíå DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 13.08 >1242 <1137 N38E28 N30E11L357 >10 11543 13.08 >1539 <0920 S20E12L005 12 CME/1900 14.08 0932 1323 S12E65L299 09 CME/0612/346 km/c 16.08 >1539 <0920 S32W51L028 08 17.08 ~1836 N23W74L034 ~16 CME/1836 17.08 ~2200 0034 NW CME/0454 c/p local. - central part localization ------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories óî + N37L040 N30L035 N28L040 N30L038 15.08 4 KP, SDO, SOHO... óî + S03L324 S25L325 S28L322 S09L342 19.08 1 KP, SDO, SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 19.08/08 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS 24.08. AUGUST 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 AUGUST Wus 062 046 032 034 042 056 067 F10.7 108 106 101 098 095 097 096 èbcg ÷3.0 ÷2.4 B5.6 ÷1.8 ÷1.9 ÷3.7 ÷2.0 GOES Sp 340 350 310 410 400 500 350 N 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - -/+ ACE Å>2 1.6å+6 3.7E+6 4.7E+6 3.8å+6 2.6å+7 1.6å+7 2.1E+6 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 9 7 6 11 9 11 12 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 9 9 9 21 9 12 14 IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 21 - 24 AUGUST. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS ACTIVE ON AUGUST 16 WHEN THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams= 27, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA, BUT UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ACCORDING BOULDER SWPC CENTER DATA. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER ON AUGUST 19 GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECAUSE OF IN- FLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM OF 40 %. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru