Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
         Highlights on 17 - 22.09.2012,
          Forecast on 23 - 30.09.2012,
    Carrington Rotation 2128 (11,29.09.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. 
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR 
THE PERIOD (6 DAYS) WAS MADE W=036+8/-8. ON THE SOLAR DISK CONSTANT-
LY THERE WAS PRESENT FROM 5 TO 3 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE 
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 17-20 AND OTHER DAYS 
- ON VERY LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD 
IT WAS OBSERVED 36 CME AMONG WHICH 1 WAS TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
DSF     to         te     c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl     AR     CME
18.09 >0040      <1355  S28W25l279         8   
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW 
LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
CH +   S30L266 S38L263 S45L281 S35L291   19.09   1   KP, SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N12L256 N10L240 S04L250 N08L260   21.09   6   KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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 AFTER 20.09/04 UT  EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 30.09.

SEPTEMBER 17     18     19     20     21     22     SEPTEMBER
Wus      051    061    062    068    074    046   
F10.7    102    104    110    117    117    125  
èbcg    ÷2.3   ÷2.8   B2.5   ÷2.7   ÷2.5   ÷3.1     GOES
Sp       220    330    420    610    420    390    
N                1      1                    1      
IMF      +/ -    -   -/+/-     -      -     -     
Å>2   2.2å+7 1.0E+7 1.4E+7 3.1å+6 7.4å+6 1.3å+7 
Nm%                                                  THULE
Ap       5       8      13     6      4      3       áÒ
Dst                                                  ëIOTO
Amsc     6       10     20     12     7      8       IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION THE ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINED UNSETTLED AND 
QUIET, EXCEPT THE LAST 6 HOURS ON SEPTEMBER 19, WHEN ACCORDING TO 
IZMIRAN DATA  THE GEOMAGNETIC SUBSTORM  (G1) - THE CONSEQUENCE OF 
PASSING BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM NEAR EQU-
ATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF RATHER BIG SIZE WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING 
TO THE CENTER  IN BOULDER  THIS SUBSTORM NOTED  AT THE SAME HOURS 
HAD INTENSITY (GO). THE CORONAL HOLE WITH SUCH CHARACTERISTICS IN 
LAST SOLAR CYCLES WITHOUT ANY DOUBT WOULD CAUSE THE SMALL MAGNETIC 
STORM.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND 
QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru