Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 23 - 30.09.2012, Forecast on 01 - 07.09.2012, Carrington Rotation 2128 (11,29.09.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD (6 DAYS) WAS MADE W=047+26/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 3-8 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH, AP- PEARED FROM EAST LIMB 25.09 BECAME THE AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT SEPTEMBER 17-20 AND OTHER DAYS - ON VERY LOW. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 56 CME AMONG WHICH 2 WAS TYPE "HALO" BACKSIDE LARGE SOLAR FLARE 27.09/1044 UT AND PROTON SOLAR FLARE C3.7/1F 27.09/2342), 2 CME OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO III" AND 5 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 27.09 2336 2357 0039 N06W34L162 C3.7/1F 9.4E-3 11577 Pr/28 CME/1034km/s 30.09 0427 0433 >0442 N13W80L188 M1.3/ 6.9E-3 11583 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 24.09 >1504 <0613 N14E48L126 10 24.09 >1504 <0613 N15W18L193 12 27.09 >1534 <0726 N03W27L163 14 C3.7 11577 CME/H 27.09 >1534 <0726 S09W28L164 15 C3.7 11577 CME/H c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N30L137 N27L134 N20L134 N19L132 01.10 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 29.09/01 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS 09.09. SEPTEMBER 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 SEPTEMBER Wus 057 090 121 113 097 077 070 095 F10.7 134 137 140 139 133 138 136 136 èbcg ÷3.7 ÷5.2 B4.6 ÷3.7 ÷3.9 ÷3.8 B5.6 ÷5.7 GOES Sp 410 470 560 710 600 590 830 830 N 2 2 1 1 1 IMF - - - - - - -/ + + Å>2 1.6å+7 1.3E+7 1.1E+7 1.0å+7 5.6å+6 9.5å+6 9.7E+6 3.8å+6 Nm% THULE Ap 1 3 2 6 5 2 4 13 áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 4 8 7 9 7 8 8 19 IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SMALL (S1) SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTRED AFTER SOLAR FLARE C3.7: Pr(10 MeV), to - 28/0300 UT; max - 28 p.f.u. 29/0445; te - 30/05 UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION THE ENTIRE PERIOD REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET, EXCEPT THE LAST THIRD OF DAYS ON SEPTEMBER 30 WHEN AFTER ARRIVAL TO EARTH OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SSC - 30.09/1138 UT), IT IS NOTED ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION. THIS DISTURBANCE WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY IT IS CONNECTED WITH LARGE FLARE 27/1055 UT WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRED BEHIND THE WESTERN SOLAR LIMB, AND THE SLIDING BLOW OF ITS CME CAUSED GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH. THIS PLOT HAD NO CONTINUATION AS IN 30/2307 UT ON EARTH THE NEW SUDDEN IMPULSE ALREADY FROM FLARE EVENT 27.09 AFTER WHICH THE MAG- NETIC STORM OF G3 INTENSITY ACCORDING OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND G2 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN BEGAN TO DEVELOP IS NOTED. NEXT WEEK THE MAGNETIC STORM WILL DEVELOP ON OCTOBER 1. FROM 2.09 THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru