Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 10 - 16.12.2012,
                Forecast on 17 - 24.12.2012,
         Carrington Rotations 2131 (02,17.12.2012)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS THE FIRST TWO DAYS THE LOW AND 
OTHER DAYS - THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 043+10/-14. ON 
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 2-5 SMAL SUNSPOTS 
GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW  AND 
LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 
040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS 
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 58 CME (AFTER 11.12) THREE OF WHICH WAS THE 
"PARTIAL HALO II".

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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
DSF     to      te   c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR           CME
10.12 >0949      <2237   N17E02L239       6
11.12 >1355      <0923   S19E14L214       8
14.12 >0025      >0145                   0.19R
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW ANDE AVE-
RAGE LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH +?  N40L224 N33L220 N26L236 N30L238   13.12   9    SDO, SOHO..
CH +?  N42L208 N40L202 N24L211 N22L220   14.12   1    SDO, SOHO..
CH +   S30L210 S35L185 S48L202 S35L215   16.12   2   KP, SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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 WITH 12.12/06 TO 13/11 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 21.12.

DECEMBER 10     11     12     13     14     15     16      DECEMBER
Wus     049    055    082    077    071    088    074            
F10.7   104    104    112    177    119    122    120          
èbcg   ÷1.8   ÷1.9   ÷1.9   B2.5   ÷3.5   ÷3.3   B3.0   wt/m-2 GOES
Sp      140    210    190    260    290    650    570   m.s.h.   
N                      2                    2      1              
IMF      -      -     -/+     +      +      +      +            áóå
Å>2  8.7å+5 9.0E+5 9.6E+5 7.1å+5 8.0å+5 1.4å+6 1.1E+6          GOES
Ie>2                                                           GOES 
Nm%                                                           THULE
Ap       3      1      2      2      3      7      5    nô      áÒ
Dst                                                           ëIOTO
Amsc     8      7      7      7      8      11     9    nô  IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - a fluence in day in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electrons flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT FROM UNKNOWN SOURCE WAS OBSERVED
Pr >10 MeV: tO - 14d/~20 UT; max-9 p.f.u. 15/0157 UT; te - 15/15 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru