HAPPY NEW YEAR FOR ALL USERS Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.12.2012, Forecast on 31.12.2012 -05.01.2013, Carrington Rotations 2131, 2132 (02,17; 29,50.12.2012) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN AT THE LAST TWO DAYS WERE ON THE LOW AND OTHER DAYS - THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=035+14/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5 - 2 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, EXCEPT DECEMBER 28 AND 30. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 47 CME TWO OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 25.12 >1418 <0959 S32W06L049 08 27.12 2309 N08E20L357 10 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N12L070 S08L067 S09L070 S01L087 25.12 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH + S42L050 S50L040 S52L040 S48L053 27.12 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + s08L004 S09l002 S12L010 S09L011 31.12 1 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 23.12/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 06.01. DECEMBER 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 DECEMBER Wus 053 058 082 078 054 049 037 F10.7 113 113 110 107 106 104 107 èbcg ÷2.1 ÷2.9 ÷3.0 B2.3 ÷2.0 ÷2.0 B2.2 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 330 320 210 300 570 240 220 Í.Ä.Ð. N 1 IMF - - - - - -/+/- - áóå Å>2 5.6å+6 2.9E+6 1.9E+6 2.0å+6 2.1å+6 1.0å+6 1.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 2 2 2 1 0 2 4 nô áÒ Dst ëIOTO Amsc 7 8 6 7 8 8 9 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru