Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 21 - 27.01.2013,
                Forecast on 28.01 - 04.02.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2132, 2133 (29,50.12.2012; 25,84.01.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED  AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL AND 
JANUARY 25 - ON THE LOW. WEEKLY,  THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=033+8/-7. ON THE VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY  THERE  WERE PRESENT 3 - 4 SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND 
AVERAGE.  THE CALCULATED  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 
040+10/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT AN VERY LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO  AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 48 CME FOUR OF THEM WAS THE "PARTIAL 
HALO II".

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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME

DSF     to      te   c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR           CME
23.01 >0009 ~0330 <1442 N12E33L357      27                CME/0554
23.01 >0755 ~18   <2313 N30E47L343      25                CME/2015
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE 
AVERAGE LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 26.01/0030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS BUT SHORT PERIOD AFTER 23.01/2330 UT THE SIGN OF SECTOR WAS "+".  
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY - /+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 29.01.

JANUARY  21     22     23     24     25     26     27       JANUARY
Wus     050    053    068    060    044    055    060            
F10.7   108    110    105    103    101    099    098          
èbcg   ÷2.5   ÷2.6   B1.9   B1.6   ÷1.5   ÷1.4   B1.4   wt/m-2 GOES
Sp      180    270    340    320    300    190    150   m.v.h.   
N               1      1                    1      1                
IMF      -      -    - /+     +      +    + /-     -            áóå
Å>2  1.2å+7 1.6E+7 1.9E+7 9.6å+6 1.1å+7 8.1å+5 2.0E+6          GOES
Ie>2    268    367    241                                      GOES 
Nm%                                                           THULE
Ap       3      0      1      1      6      18     5    nô      áÒ
Dst                                 -8     -53    -39         ëIOTO
Amsc     6      4      7      8      10     24     12   nô  IZMIRAN
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>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL WAS OBSERVED 17 -18.01.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS ACTIVE ON JANUARY 26 IN THE SECOND HALF 
OF DAYS WHEN IN REPLY TO DISTURBANCE ARRIVAL FROM DOUBLE EJECTA OF LAR-
GE SOLAR FILAMENT 23.01, GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ANSWERED WITH THE 9-HOUR 
SUBSTORM INTENSITY OF G1 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA AND G0 ACCORDING TO 
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA. IN OTHER DAYS  GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION  WAS 
QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru