Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 11 - 17.02.2013,
                 Forecast on 18 - 25.02.2013,
  Carrington Rotations 2133, 2134 (25,84.01; 22,18.02.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LE-
VEL.  WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  
FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=032+13/-17. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTAN-
TLY THERE WERE PRESENT 2 - 4 SMALL AND QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND 
AVERAGE.  THE CALCULATED  MOST LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED  W = 
030+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL 12 AND 14.02 AND VERY LOW LEVEL ON THE 
OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 26 
CME AND THREE OF THEM WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local.  Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
17.02  1545 1550 1559   N12E22L037 M1.9/SF 2.9E-3  11675
DSF     to      te       c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR        CME
12.02  2201     2226     S28W54L163      6 
16.02 >1024    <2248     N13E03L080      15            
c/p local. - central part localization 
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ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH +   N40L131 N32L116 N27L126 N30L136   14.02   1   KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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AFTER 5.02/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS. THE SEGMENT OF "-" SECTOR EARTH PASSED 12.02/00-13.02/08 UT. 
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 18.02.

FEBRUARY 11     12     13     14     15     16     17      FEBRUARY
Wus     060    055    026    025    058    059    074          
F10.7   105    102    100    100    100    103    100          
èbcg   ÷1.8   ÷1.8   B1.6   B1.7   ÷2.1   ÷2.0   B2.3   wt/m-2 GOES
Sp      370    340    210    200    220    240    250   m.v.h.   
N        2                           2      2      1              
IMF      +     +/-    -/+     +      +      +      +           áóå
Å>2  1.8å+6 1.1E+6 9.1E+5 1.8å+6 4.3å+6 5.9å+6 8.7E+5         GOES
Ie>2                                                          GOES 
Nm%                                                          THULE
Ap       3      3      9      10     3      7     13   nô     áÒ
Dst                                                          ëéïôï
Amsc     8      10     15     13     8      10     9   nô  éúíéòáî
------------------------------------------------------------------------
e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED, BUT AT NIGHT HOURS 
WAS REGISTRED SUBSTORM G1 (dur. 6 h.). POSSIBLE SOURCE IT GEOMAGNETIC 
DISTURBANCE IS SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 8.02.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER ON FEBRUARY 20-21 ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER DATA GROWTH OF GEO-
MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE HIGHER OF MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL (POSSIBILITY ~30%)
FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA (DSF) AT 16.02 IS POSSIBLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru