Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 04 - 10.03.2013, Forecast on 11 - 18.03.2013, Carrington Rotations 2134 (22,18.02.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 050+14/-15. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 7-4 QUIET SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT 5.03 ON AVERAGE LEVEL, AT 7.03 - LOW AND ON VERY LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 48 CME, THREE OF THEM WERE THE "HALO" TYPE FROM LARGE BACKSIDE FLARE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME Xray opt J/m-2 05.03 0747 0754 0801 S15W54L261 M1.2/SF 4.3E-4 11686 II/1(1011km/s) DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 04.03 >0619 <0744 S27W36L251 14 05.03 0135 0414 S26W66L268 5 B5.2 11686 06.03 0057 0522 S35E43L145 5 06.03 0127 0427 N26E34L152 7 06.03 0557 0640 N24W37L225 10 11684 08.03 0050 0330 S02W39L201 5 09.03 >1551 <0605 S54W22L171 8 c/p local. - central part localization ------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N50L233 N40L193 N28L220 N35L233 06.03 4 KP, SDO SOHO... CH + S32L180 S45L125 S48L175 S45L195 09.03 2 KP, SDO SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.03/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER 8.03 WITH 04 TO 23 UT IT IS NOTED "-" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 19.03. MARCH 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 MARCH Wus 103 106 088 080 059 063 089 F10.7 114 118 114 114 115 116 119 èbcg ÷2.7 ÷3.2 B2.8 B2.4 ÷3.1 ÷3.2 B3.4 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 110 250 250 370 460 430 490 m.v.h. N 1 1 1 1 2 IMF - - -/+ + +/-/+ + + áóå Å>2 2.7å+8 3.5E+8 2.3E+8 1.3å+8 5.9å+8 2.2å+7 1.8E+8 GOES Ie>2 6262 7333 7905 2176 1612 707 610 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 3 4 2 3 2 6 4 nô áÒ Dst ëIïôï Amsc 11 7 8 5 5 6 7 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 02/1040 AND WAS OBSERVED 4 - 8.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ruru