Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.03.2013, Forecast on 18 - 25.03.2013, Carrington Rotations 2134, 2135 (22,18.02; 21,5.03.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 065+15/-11. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6-9 QUIET SMALL SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT 15.03 ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 34 CME, ONE OF THEM WERE THE "HALO" TYPE FROM FLARE AT 15.03, AND TWO - THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME Xray opt J/m-2 15.03 0546 0558 <0833 N11E12L077 M1.1/1F 3.3E-2 11692 IV/2 CME/H/732km/s DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 12.03 >0052 <1347 N29E07L102 15 11690 12.03 >0052 <1347 S35E31L078 10 12.03 >1001 <2318 N17W01L110 08 12.03 1015 1253 N05E30L079 14 CME/pH/583km/s 14.03 >0046 <2116 S32W07L090 08 14.03 1208 1544 S30W20L103 11 15.03 >0040 <1345 S41W22L092 07 16.03 >0048 <1438 N39W13L069 24 16.03 >0048 <1438 S31W50L116 17 11690 16.03 >1512 <0548 N43W15L071 12 17.03 >1027 <2319 N18W49L092 07 17.03 >1027 <2319 S15E41L002 13 c/p local. - central part localization ------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S10L082 S45L040 S42L080 S15L087 19.03 2 KP, SDO SOHO... R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.03/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 19.03. MARCH 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 MARCH Wus 105 095 103 133 105 090 126 F10.7 120 123 123 123 123 126 126 èbcg ÷2.5 ÷3.3 B4.7 B2.5 ÷4.0 ÷4.3 B3.6 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 490 610 630 740 650 890 980 m.v.h. N 2 2 2 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 3.0å+6 4.1E+6 4.7E+6 7.8å+6 1.7å+6 3.6å+6 3.7E+6 GOES Ie>2 113 231 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 5 5 3 4 5 10 46 nô áÒ Dst -29 -132 nô ëIïôï Amsc 9 12 5 8 9 3 40 nô IZMIRAN e>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED 4 - 8.03. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED TO THE MIDDLE OF DAY 17.03 WHEN AFTER ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SI- 17/0610 UT), THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 61, dur.= 15 h.) IS REGISTERED ACCORDING DATA OF IZMIRAN AND (G2, Ams=63, dur.= 18 h.) BY DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TURNED OUT TO BE CON- SEQUENCE OF INTERPLANETARY DISTURBANCE ARRIVAL FROM FLARE EVENT ON MARCH, 15. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru