-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2013 HAS MADE W mar.= 57.9, THAT GIVES FOR 45 MONTH (2012, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep.= 58.1 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI.2012 - IX 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 57 6.. 57 11.. 75 16.. 81 21.. 36 26.. 22m 31.. 70 2.. 71 7.. 49 12.. 85 17.. 88 22.. 36 27.. 28 3.. 68 8.. 54 13.. 81 18.. 79 23.. 36 28.. 35 4.. 65 9.. 60 14.. 91M 19.. 49 24.. 30 29.. 53 5.. 61 10.. 74 15.. 82 20.. 38 25.. 31 30.. 54 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, MARCH F mar. = 111.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, MARCH Ap mar. = 10.56 Values of smoothed Wolf numbers for the 6th month of falling after February, 2012 began to increase a little, designating the first peak of the current solar cycle development. If it appears greatest of se- veral (in their 14th cycle was 4 and the maximum fell on the second) it and there will be a maximum 24 solar cycles that is IMPROBABLE as in low (W*<80) reliable solar cycles (12, 14, 16) while length of a growth branch was more than 4 years. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.04.2013, Forecast on 08 - 15.04.2013, Carrington Rotations, 2135 (21,5.03.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=070+18/-20. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRE- SENT FROM 6 TO 9 QUIET GROUPS OF THE SOLAR SPOTS, ONE OF WHICH REACHED ON APRIL 3 - 5 THE BIG SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AND THE HIGH LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 070+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A AVERAGE LEVEL AT 5.03 AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 38 CME, AND 1 OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" AND ONE - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 05.04 1734 1748 >1804 N07E88L077 M2.2/ 2.6E-2 11719 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 01.04 >0000 <0201 N62å60L155 63 04.04 0534 0856 N19W41L216 53 06.04 0608 0829 S43E23L126 9 07.04 >0059 <1306 S14W54L190 12 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N50L179 N30L177 N18L195 N33L215 07.04 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - S30L165 S48L145 S45L173 S30L185 07.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N18L157 N10L155 N06L158 N15L160 09.04 1 KP, SDO, SOHO.. CH - S39L112 S52L102 S55L112 S40L142 09.04 1 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 07.04/18 UT UT EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY + /- EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 14.04. APRIL 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 APRIL Wus 084 103 109 119 146 117 144 F10.7 119 122 127 129 134 137 138 èbcg ÷2.4 ÷2.5 ÷2.8 B3.1 ÷3.6 ÷4.2 B4.0 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 650 700 860 820 860 880 910 m.v.h. N 2 1 4 1 IMF - - - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 1.6å+8 2.5E+8 2.2E+8 1.1å+8 8.9å+7 2.7å+7 1.7E+7 GOES Ie>2 3308 5766 3798 3225 1970 1473 1006 GOES Nm% THULE Ap 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 nô áÒ Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS REGISTRED AFTER 30/1335 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 1 -4.04 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 8.04. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HOWEVER 9 AND 10 APRIL THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru