Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 13 - 19.05.2013 , Forecast on 20 - 27.05.2013, Carrington Rotations 2136, 2137 (17,78.04; 15,02.05.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE AVERAGE TO HIGH AND BACK TO THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 097+30/-18. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 10-6 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, THREE OF WHICH WAS THE AVERAGES SIZE CATEGORY. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 13 AND 15 MAY, WHEN IN COMING TO THE SOLAR VISIBLE DISK AR11748 (N12L292, Sp = 270 Í.Ä.Ð. ; XRI = 9.48; X/4+M/3) IN DURING OF 47 HOURS IN THIS AR OCCURRED FOUR FLARES X-RAY CLASS X. The AVERAGE LEVEL IS NOTED 16 - 17 MAY AND THE LOW - 14, 18- 19 MAY. THERE WERE ONE EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENTS OBSERVED IN THIS PERIOD (14.05). BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSER- VED 65 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE THE TYPE OF "HALO", 1 -"PARTIAL GALO III" AND 2 WERE THE TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 13.05 0153 0217 >0232 N11E89L292 X1.7/ 2.2E-1 11748 II/1 CME/H 13.05 1157 1203 >1209 N11E87L292 M1.3/ 5.9E-3 11748 13.05 1548 1605 1637 N11E85L292 X2.8/1N 2.3E-1 11748 II/2 CME/H 13.05 2359 0111 >0120 N12E77L292 X3.2/2B 2.2E-1 11748 II/1 CME/H 15.05 0124 0148 0230 N12E64L292 2N/X1.2 1.2E-1 11748 II/1 CME/H 16.05 2136 2153 2252 N13E41L292 M1.3/1N 1.2E-2 11748 17.05 0843 0857 1056 N12E57L292 M3.2/2B 4.4E-2 11748 II/2 CME/III DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 14.05 0525 0615 S08E70L294 7 11748 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL. AR11748 SETTLED ALL TAKEN-OUT FLARE ENERGY AND THE NEW PERIOD OF SIG- NIFICANT FLARESX ISX POSSIBLE ONLY IN CASE OF THE NEW LARGE MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE BUT THAT IS A LITTLE PROBABLE. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S30L304 S40L279 S50L289 S38L314 21.05 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N48L249 N35L211 N20L261 N25L266 25.05 4 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- WITH 14.05/00 TO 19.05/15 UT EARTH WAS PASSED IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ON MAY 15 AND 16 THE FIELD SIGN REPEA- TEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 20-21.05. MAY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 MAY Wus 144 142 186 212 198 140 113 F10.7 150 148 146 145 136 132 135 èbcg ó1.1 ÷7.1 ÷7.7 B6.0 ÷5.7 ÷4.8 B5.8 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 1380 1200 1180 1290 990 700 590 m.v.h. N 1 3 1 IMF + - +/- -/+ + + + áóå Å>2 2.0å+7 3.9E+6 3.0E+6 6.6å+6 9.6å+6 4.5å+6 2.2E+6 GOES Ie>2 GOES Ap 5 9 8 15 4 4 15 nô áÒ Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 13 12 11 14 20 16 17 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS OCCURRENCED AFTER A SERIES OF LARGE FLARES: Pr(>10 MeV): to-15/00 UT; tmax-17/1720 -41 p.f.u.; te - 20/>12 UT THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS CHANGED FROM UNCETTLED TO THE ACTIVE. ON MAY 18 ACCORDING TO THE BOULDER CENTER DATA 9 HOUR SUBSTORM (G1) IS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS DAY THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDI- TION REMAINED ACTIVE ONLY. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru