Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 17 - 21.06.2013, Forecast on 22 - 30.06.2013, Carrington Rotations 2138 (11,23.06.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY RAISING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 074+7/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6-5 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS ONE OF THEM - THE MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 070+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY IN THIS PERIOD WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT 21 JUNE, LOW LEVEL-IN OTER DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THE- RE WERE OBSERVED 29 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE TYPE OF THE "PARTIAL GALO III" AND TWO - THE "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 21.06 0230 0314 0357 S16E73l165 M2.9/1F 6.9E-2 11777 IV/1 CMEIII DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - S24L286 S40L278 S41L278 S30L293 18.06 2 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N52L238 N43L183 N20L253 N25L266 21.06 2 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 15.06/05 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 28.06. JUNE 17 18 19 20 21 JUNE Wus 110 120 126 128 135 F10.7 124 125 123 126 133 èbcg ÷4.6 ÷4.4 B4.2 B4.6 ÷5.5 wt/m-2 GOES Sp 990 770 810 660 850 m.v.h. N 1 IMF - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.2å+7 1.1E+7 3.3E+7 1.1å+6 2.7å+6 GOES Ie>2 GOES Ap 4 4 4 10 17 nô áÒ Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 6 6 9 12 16 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS BEGINING AT 21/1730 UT, IN CONTINUE.. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams =24, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED ON JUNE 20-21. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IN THESE HOURS WAS SIMPLY SLIGHTLY DIS- TURBANCED. THIS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF PASSING BY EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM ENORMOUS CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru