Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 01 - 07.07.2013, Forecast on 08 - 15.007.2013, Carrington Rotations 2138, 2139 (11,23.06; 08,42.07.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD (9 DAYS) WAS MADE W = 064+5/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 8 - 4 COMPARATIVELY QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS LARGE-AR11785 (S11E24L008, Sp=720 m.v.h.) NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+20/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON JULY 3 AND ON LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. IT IS NECESSARY TO NOTE THAT THE EXTENDED EMERGANCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUXES IN LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP (THE AREA INCREMENT ON JULY, 2-3 - 270 m.v.h. and 4-5.07 - 150 m.v.h.) LED TO A LARGE NUMBER OF SMAL X-RAYS CLAS FLAREST. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED MORE 35 CME FROM WHICH TWO WAS THE TYPE OF THE "PARTIAL GALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 03.07 0700 0708 0723 S11E82L348 M1.3/SF 1.9E-3 11787 II/2 IV/2 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N68L048 N45L033 N30L048 N35L088 04.07 3 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 06.07/0530 TO 07.07/17 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLA- NETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 12.07. JULY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 JULY Wus 102 101 094 109 113 115 112 F10.7 108 114 125 138 141 134 126 èbcg ÷3.30 ÷5.0 B6.1 B7.7 ÷7.9 B5.1 B4.1 GOES Sp 430 620 700 870 970 870 850 m.v.h. N 2 1 1 1 2 IMF + + + + + +/- +/- áóå Å>2 2.4å+8 2.7E+8 2.9E+8 3.5å+8 3.6å+7 1.8E-6 7.2E-6 GOES Ie>2 5846 4429 4867 6620 4202 480 218 GOES Ap 8 3 5 5 8 21 22 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 8 6 7 11 23 8 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 23/0230 UT AND OBSERVED 01 - 05.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE ON JULY 6 AND REACHED LEVEL OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND (G0, Ams=24, dur.=21 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER IN 6 HOURS AFTER THE MENTIONED MI- NOR MAGNETIC STORM THE 9-hours SUBSTORM (G0) WAS REGISTERED. OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE FROM QUITE TO UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru