Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 15 - 21.07.2013, Forecast on 22 - 29.07.2013, Carrington Rotations 2139 (08,42.07.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 045+22/-16. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 2 - 7 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 20 CME FROM WHICH FOUR WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 16.07 1328 1623 S44W74L315 28 17.07 >1717 <0556 S27E22L259 12 18.07 >0916 <2346 S12W18L233 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE- RAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH ? N05L106 S30L074 S35L076 N02L107 23.07 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH ? N20L164 N15L137 S12L147 N17L159 25.07 2 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- BETWEEN 15.07/12 AND 17.07/07 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTER- PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 26.07. JULY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 JULY Wus 077 061 074 112 094 057 049 F10.7 114 114 111 115 114 113 109 èbcg ÷4.0 ÷3.7 B3.2 B3.4 ÷3.4 B3.0 B3.2 GOES Sp 360 530 430 440 330 260 320 m.v.h. N 2 3 IMF - - - - - - - áóå Å>2 2.1å+7 6.4E+7 1.8E+8 8.1å+7 7.6å+7 1.9E-8 1.9E-8 GOES Ie>2 1067 1650 4333 2286 2710 4163 3740 GOES Ap 23 5 5 15 14 6 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 17 9 8 18 14 7 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN AT 23/0230 UT AND OBSERVED 15 - 21.07. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO 28.07. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 15 AND 18 JULY WAS ACTIVE. MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 37, dur.= 21 h.) WAS REGISTERED 14-15 JULY ACCORDING BY DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA IN THIS DAY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS OBSERVED. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WILL CHANGE FROM ACTIVE (ON JULY 23 AND 25) TO THE QUIET. 25.07 ACTIVITY GROWTH TO LEVEL OF THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM BECAUSE THE EARTH WILL PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH- SPEED STREAM FROM THE NEXT NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru