-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2013 HAS MADE Wjuly= 57.0, THAT GIVES FOR 55 MONTH (2013, JANUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*jan.= 58.7 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI.2012 - IX 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 51 6.. 82 11.. 52 16.. 51 21.. 35 26.. 47 31.. 68 2.. 74 7.. 93M 12.. 48 17.. 48 22.. 38 27.. 45 3.. 72 8.. 81 13.. 24m 18.. 63 23.. 53 28.. 48 4.. 80 9.. 73 14.. 40 19.. 56 24.. 46 29.. 68 5.. 72 10.. 53 15.. 51 20.. 39 25.. 56 30.. 59 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, JULY Fjuly = 115.5 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, JULY Ap july. = 9.33 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 29.07 - 04.08.2013 , Forecast on 05 - 12.08.2013, Carrington Rotations 2139, 2140 (08,42.07; 04,64.08.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 058+11/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6 - 8 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 20 CME FROM WHICH FOUR WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 29.07 >0927 <2332 N18E82L348 14 02.08 >0927 <2332 S25W19L036 13 02.08 >0927 <2332 S27E36L341 08 02.08 1143 1308 S18W31L048 10 03.08 >0929 <2342 S20W48L052 07 03.08 >0929 <2342 S27E36L015 05 03.08 >0715 <0448 S57W11L015 08 04.08 0615 0710 N30E54L306 07 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE- RAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH ? N52L005 N50L002 N22L027 N38L062 02.08 4 SDO, SOHO.. CH ? S32L030 S50L010 S52L015 S35L040 03.08 1 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 25.07/14 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. BUT 02/02 - 04/06 UT THE EARTH WAW PASSED "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 07.08. JULY 29 30 31 01 02 03 04 AUGUST Wus 097 105 094 088 112 104 075 F10.7 112 113 109 112 113 107 105 èbcg ÷4.1 B4.7 B3.4 ÷3.0 B2.7 B2.2 B2.2 GOES Sp 500 490 450 380 450 390 330 m.v.h. N 2 1 1 1 1 IMF + + + + +/- - -/+ áóå Å>2 4.4å+7 3.2E+7 3.6E+7 4.6å+7 3.3å+7 3.7E+7 3.1E+6 GOES Ie>2 1035 906 852 1502 791 901 GOES Ap 6 6 6 5 3 4 16 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 4 9 8 9 9 10 20 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OBSERVED 29.07 AND 1.08. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. MODERATE GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 42, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED 4-5 AUGUST ACCORDING BY DATA OF THE IZMIRAN. ACCORDING CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA THE DISTURBANCE WAS MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 31, dur.= 12 h.) IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THE UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru