Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.08.2013, Forecast on 12 - 19.08.2013, Carrington Rotations 2140 (04,64.08.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADUALLY INCREASING. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 045+14/-10. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 4 - 6 QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 050+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL TO 9.08 AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. ONCE AGAIN ON THE SUN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA BECAME MORE ACTIVE, FOR THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 17 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 34 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 06.08 >0028 <0122 S72W13L347 8 11806 06.08 0135 0150 N25E30L304 6 06.08 >0928 <2333 N18W31L005 5 06.08 >0928 <2333 S18E02L332 5 06.08 >0931 <2329 S16W20L005 7 07.08 >0931 <2329 S34W18L326 6 07.08 0013 0211 N35E12L308 8 08.08 0013 0211 N37E10L297 7 08.08 >0019 <0120 S33W31L338 8 08.08 >1702 <0543 N27W45L355 8 09.08 >0936 <2329 N20E51L243 9 09.08 >0936 <2326 S22W41L335 6 11810 10.08 >0014 <1623 N20E43L238 5 10.08 >0014 <1623 N12E52L229 6 10.08 >0934 <2327 N13E38L243 6 11.08 0039 0203 S03E56L212 16 11818 11.08 <0936 < 2326 N51E29L239 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE- RAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N48L203 N555L198 N10L223 N15L275 14-16.08 4 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 9.08/04 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + THE EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 22.08. AUGUST 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 AUGUST Wus 059 061 099 090 051 076 090 F10.7 104 104 106 104 104 104 110 èbcg ÷2.0 B2.2 ÷2.0 B2.2 B2.1 B2.2 B3.3 GOES Sp 200 180 190 190 130 110 180 m.v.h. N 4 3 IMF + + + + +/- - - áóå Å>2 6.9å+7 2.4E+8 4.2E+8 3.1å+8 1.3å+8 3.3E+7 3.1E+7 GOES Ie>2 2771 5207 7173 5826 3146 1078 646 GOES Ap 17 6 4 4 9 7 5 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 18 9 6 6 7 8 7 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGINING 5.08/1325 UT AND OBSERVED 6 - 10.08. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 14 - 19.08. MODERATE GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 42, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED 4-5 AUGUST ACCORDING BY DATA OF THE IZMIRAN. ACCORDING CENTER IN BOUL- DER DATA THE DISTURBANCE WAS MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 31, dur.= 12 h.) IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK ACTIVE THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE 14 - 16.08 WHICH THESE DAYS CAN REACH LEVEL OF THE MAGNETIC STORM. IN IT TIME EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM BIG SOLAR CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE WHICH ALREADY THE FOURTH ROTATION GIVES RECURRENT GEO- MAGNETIC DISTURBANSES. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL BE QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru