-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON AUGUST 2013 HAS MADE Waug.= 66.0, THAT GIVES FOR 56 MONTH (2013, FEBRUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*feb.= 58.4 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XII.2013 - IV 2014 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, AUGUST ACCORDING DATA OF 65 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 69 6.. 51 11.. 58 16.. 69 21..105M 26.. 31m 31.. 53 2.. 82 7.. 62 12.. 65 17.. 72 22..100 27.. 40 3.. 77 8.. 64 13.. 78 18.. 79 23.. 99 28.. 36 4.. 62 9.. 46 14.. 78 19.. 96 24.. 56 29.. 38 5.. 59 10.. 52 15.. 89 20.. 93 25.. 36 30.. 51 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, AUGUST Faug.= 114.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, AUGUST Ap aug.= 7.86 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 26.08 - 01.09.2013, Forecast on 02 - 09.09.2013, Carrington Rotations 2140, 2041 (04,64.08; 31,87.08.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=033+10/-12. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 3 QUITE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE- RAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC- TED W = 050+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A LOW LEVEL LAST 4 DAYS AND OTHER DAYS - AT THE VERY LOW. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 5 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 42 CME FROM WHICH 1 WAS "HALO" TYPE AND 5 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 26.08 >0934 <2318 S21W32L102 33 29.08 0133 0529 S60E00L030 44 29.08 >0939 <2319 S30W03L033 14 29.08 >1556 <0156 N43E34L356 8 01.09 >0043 >0313 S26W09L356 6 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND SOMETIME AVE- RAGE LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N45L038 N40L030 N10L058 N32L068 30.08 5 SDO, SOHO.. CH + S05L050 S10L048 S15L052 N32L058 31.08 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH - N03L356 S18L346 S20L349 S20L349 04.09 1 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 30.08/10 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. 27-30.08 THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 05.09. AUGUST 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 SEPTEMBER Wus 035 061 044 055 062 060 071 F10.7 111 110 108 109 108 108 104 èbcg ÷3.1 B3.0 ÷2.4 B2.4 B3.1 B2.3 B2.0 GOES Sp 210 390 440 450 390 340 320 m.v.h. N 1 IMF -\+ +\- - - -\+ + + áóå Å>2 6.8å+7 4.6E+7 2.4E+6 6.2å+6 8.0å+6 1.1E+6 1.5E+7 GOES Ie>2 1952 1407 GOES Ap 5 16 8 3 8 11 9 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc - 16 10 6 15 15 11 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 23.08/1500 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON AUGUST 26-27. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 02 - 06.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, HOWEVER LEVEL OF THE MAGNETIC STORM WASN'T REACHED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT, PROBABLY, 04 SEPTEMBER WHEN THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGHSPEED STREAM OF SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE (THE LAST IN THE TABLE). HOWEVER THE MAGNETIC STORM IS IMPROBABLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru