Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.09.2013, Forecast on 09 - 16.09.2013, Carrington Rotation 2041 (31,87.08.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL BUT AFTER 5.09 - THE LOW. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=035+15/-21. ON THE VISIBLE SO- LAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 4 - 2 QUITE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT AFTER 6.09 - AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 7 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SO- HO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 29 CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 02.09 >0030 <1329 S31E28L306 12 02.09 >0135 <0248 S46E30L004 16 02.09 >0941 <2307 N03E17L317 16 06.09 0245 0500 N40E42L240 27 08.09 >0939 >2309 S39E24L235 6 08.09 >0939 >2309 S32W48L291 8 08.09 >0939 >2309 S22W48L302 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE VERY LOW. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N03L356 S18L346 S20L349 S20L349 04.09 1 SDO, SOHO.. CH + N40L196 N35L186 N21L226 N25L236 13.09 5 SDO, SOHO.. R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 08.09/01345 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS BUT AFTER 03/0130 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR. THE FOLLOW- ING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD TO PASS 10.09. SEPTEMBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 SEPTEMBER Wus 084 074 077 075 041 035 024 F10.7 106 106 109 110 101 099 096 èbcg B2.1 ÷2.9 B3.8 B3.7 B3.1 B2.5 ÷1.7 GOES Sp 410 360 370 320 260 170 090 m.v.h. N 1 1 IMF + +\- - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 9.4å+7 8.8E+7 5.7E+7 5.5å+7 6.2å+7 4.8E+7 5.0E+7 GOES Ie>2 3161 2404 1230 1156 1314 1006 1040 GOES Ap 9 6 5 4 5 3 6 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 10 8 9 8 10 5 10 nT IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 02.09/1315 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON SEPTEMBER 02-08. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 09 - 15.09. THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE ALL PERIOD. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT, PROBABLY, 13.09, WHEN THE EARTH WILL BE TO PASS THE HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM THE LAST IN THE TABLE THE GREAT RECURRENT (5 RO- TATION) CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE OF 90%, AND MAGNETIC STORM OF 40%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru