Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 21 - 27.10.2013, Forecast on 28.10 - 03.11.2013, Carrington Rotation 2142, 2143 (28,14.09; 25,43.10.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=105+30/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 5 - 9 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH AR11877(S11 L009, Sp max= 390 Í.Ä.Ð.), AR11882(S08 L293, Sp max=390 Í.Ä.Ð., è/2+í/8) AND ONE BIG AR11875 (N07L027, Sp max=790 Í.Ä.Ð., X/1+M/8). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVEL. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 080+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON 24 AND 25.10, THE LOW - 21.10 AND AVERAGE IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 4 DSF WERE OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSER- VED 65 CME FROM WHICH 9 WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 22.10 0014 0022 0030 N06E17L027 M1.8/SF 5.3E-3 11875 22.10 1444 1520 >1528 N07E07L027 SF/M1.0 1.5E-2 11875 22.10 2115 2120 2130 N04W01L027 M4.2/1B 7.5E-3 11875 CME 23.10 2041 2053 0049 N07W07L027 SF/M1.4 5.9E-3 11875 23.10 2330 2341 1528 N07E07L027 SF/M1.0 1.5E-2 11875 23.10 2358 0008 >0016 N06W08L027 M3.1/ 2.5E-2 11875 CME 24.10 0020 0030 0048 S10E08L009 M9.3/1N 4.8E-2 11877 II/1 IV/1 CME 24.10 0942 1009 ~1157 N07W13L027 2B/M2.5 1.7E-2 11875 24.10 1030 1033 >1037 N06W11L027 2B/M3.5 8.0E-3 11875 CME 25.10 0248 0302 >0312 S07E76L027 M2.9/ 2.5E-2 11875 II/2 IV/1 CME 25.10 0753 0801 >0809 S08E73L293 X1.7/ 9.0E-2 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME 25.10 0943 1012 1046 S08E73L293 M1.0/SF 2.1E-2 11882 III/1 25.10 1702 1709 1716 S08E67L293 M1.3/ 8.0E-3 11882 25.10 1451 1503 >1512 S06E69L293 X2.1/ 1.6E-1 11882 II/2 IV/2 CME 25.10 1905 1921 1958 S06E66L293 M2.3/SF 9.1E-3 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME 25.10 2050 2058 2204 S08E64L293 1N/M1.9 1.6E-2 11882 26.10 0559 0606 >0715 S09E61L293 1B/M2.3 1.9E-2 11882 26.10 0917 0937 >0948 S10E58L293 M1.5/ 1.7E-2 11882 26.10 1011 1117 ~1212 S05E58L293 1N/M1.8 3.6E-2 11882 26.10 1924 1927 1938 S09E81L261 M3.1/SF 9.8E-3 11884 CME 26.10 1949 1953 >1958 S08E51L293 M1.0/ 4.1E-3 11882 27.10 1233 1248 >1252 N06W63L027 1F/M3.5 1.6E-2 11875 28/10 0141 0203 0231 N04W66L027 X1.0/2N 8.4E-2 11875 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 21.10 >1428 <0801 N28E03L040 27 22.10 1356 1640 N02W59L059 10 22.10 >0235 <0400 N34E24L006 31 24.10 0015 0023 S09E08L009 5 M9.3 11877 CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGH, THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEKS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27/10/0230 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS, HOWEVER AFTER 21.10 THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 2.11. OCTOBER 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 OCTOBER Wus 179 228! 141 148 148 171 206 F10.7 136 146 153 161 161 165 167 èbcg B5.7 ÷7.1 B8.9 B8.9 ó1.1 ó1.2 ó1.1 GOES Sp 870 990 1080 1440 1500 1560 1930 m.v.h. N 2 2 3 IMF +/- - - - - - -/+ áóå Å>2 1.8å+8 1.3E+8 3.4E+7 3.5å+7 3.7å+7 3.3E+7 3.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 3951 2433 pfu GOES Ap 1 5 3 2 3 2 2 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 9 7 10 4 7 5 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 17.10/0930 UT AND WERE OBSERVED ON OCTOBER 17 - 22. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRONS FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru