-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2013 HAS MADE Woct.= 85.6, THAT GIVES FOR 58 MONTH (2013, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*apr.= 57.9 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XII.2013 - IV 2014 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 36 6.. 35m 11.. 91 16.. 89 21.. 96 26.. 99 31.. 97 2.. 45 7.. 55 12.. 84 17..109 22.. 88 27..111 3.. 51 8.. 72 13.. 99 18..116M 23.. 93 28..110 4.. 59 9.. 79 14.. 96 19.. 97 24..108 29..112 5.. 43 10.. 90 15.. 96 20.. 85 25..103 30..109 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, OCTOBER Foct.= 132.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, OCTOBER Ap oct.= 7.65 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 28.10 - 03.11.2013, Forecast on 04 - 11.11.2013, Carrington Rotation 2143 (25,43.10.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=81+22/-24. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 5-9 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH WERE LARGE AR11875 (N07L027, Sp max=790 mvh, X/2+M/10) AND AR11890(S09L173, Sp max = 660 mvh). THE FIRST GONE FOR W-LIMB 29.10, THE SECOND IS APPEAR FROM E-Limb 1.11. ONE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11884 (S09L261, Sp max=460 msh) WAS ME- DIUM SIZE AND HAS BEEN IN IT 1 - 3.11 OCCURRE A LARGE ONE AND TWO FLARE MIDDLE IMPORTANCE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH, AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 080+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE HIGH LEVEL AVERAGE LEVEL ON 28-29.10, 1 é 3.11, THE LOW - 30.10 AND AVERAGE IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CON- SIDERED PERIOD 1 DSF WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 57 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE THE "HALO" TYPE AND 4 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 28.10 0141 0203 0231 N04W66L027 X1.0/2N 8.4E-2 11875 II/2 óíå 28.10 0432 0441 0453 N08W21L027 M5.1/2B 2.1E-2 11875 II/2 IV/1 CME 28.10 1132 1153 1336 S16W44L009 M1.4/2N 4.0E-2 11877 28.10 1400 1405 1418 N06W78L027 M2.8/1N 1.4E-2 11875 28.10 1446 1501 1523 S08E28L293 M2.7/1N 9.8E-3 11882 28.10 1507 1511 >1613 S06E28L293 M4.4/1N 2.6E-2 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME 28.10 2048 2057 >2102 N07W83L027 M1.5/ 6.8E-3 11875 29.10 2142 2154 >2201 N05W89L027 X2.3/ 1.4E-1 11875 II/1 IV/1 CME 31.10 1336 1331 >1402 S10W88L352 M1.9/ 1.9E-2 11879 01.11 1946 1953 2055 S11E01L261 M6.3/1B 2.3E-3 11884 CME 02.11 2213 2221 2248 S12W11L261 M1.6/1F 6.4E-3 11884 03.11 0516 0522 0540 S12W16L261 M5.0/2B 1.3E-2 11884 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 02.11 >0949 <2227 S24W02L243 7 C8.2 AR11885 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGH, THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEKS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH - N20L223 N18L218 N11L236 N13L238 06.11 7 SDO, SOHO,... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 2.11/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS, HOWEVER 29.10/14 - 31.10/09 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR ALSO. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 9.11. OCTOBER 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 NOVEMBER Wus 155 171 132 128 095 123 143 F10.7 160 153 142 143 145 142 144 èbcg ó1.2 ó1.1 B6.5 B5.9 ÷8.1 ÷6.5 B6.1 GOES Sp 1750 1720 1230 900 730 710 1280 mvh N 1 1 1 2 IMF +/- -/+ + +/- - -/+ + áóå Å>2 2.1å+7 1.3E+7 1.4E+6 6.3å+5 1.2å+6 5.8E+6 3.6E+7 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 2 5 13 6 3 2 10 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 4 8 15 10 6 6 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. TWO SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENTS OCCURRED 28.10 AND 2.11: Pr 28/0235 UT, max 30/0925 UT - 4 pfu, te 31/~12 UT; Pr 02/0830 UT, max 02/20 UT - 3 pfu, te 03/~10 UT; THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WERE NJN OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 7 - 9.11. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru