Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 17.11.2013, Forecast on 18 - 25.11.2013, Carrington Rotation 2143, 2144 (25,43.10; 21,73.11.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH áND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W= 118+51/-56. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6-9 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH WERE LARGE AR11897(S18L063,Sp= 610 mvh, M/2) AND AR11899(N06L037,Sp=630 mvh), BOTH RATHER QUIET. IN THE LAST DAY OF PERIOD THE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11893 (S12L103) AREA INCREASED TO AVERAGE SIZE. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH AND THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 080+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON 11, 13 AND 15-16.11 AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CONSIDERED PERIOD 1 DSF WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 36 CME FROM WHICH 2 WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND 2 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 11.11 1101 1118 >1130 S12E74L063 M2.6/ 3.0E-3 11897 13.11 1457 1515 1520 S20E46L063 M1.4/ 2.1E-2 11897 15.11 0220 0229 0241 NO7E52L037 M1.0/SF 4.5E-3 11899 16.11 0447 0453 >0457 S18W29L105 M1.2/ 4.2E-3 11900 16.11 0745 0749 0801 S12W29L178 M1.6/1F 4.4E-3 11890 17.11 0506 0510 0519 S20W42L105 M1.0/SN 2.4E-3 11890 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 12.11 >1003 <2250 S14E25L184 9 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERA- GE AND LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R Observatories CH + N50L084 N40L078 N10L116 N20L118 15.11 3 SDO, SOHO,... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 13.11/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 1.12. NOVEMBER 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NOVEMBER Wus 104 147 128 234 272 213 282 F10.7 164 168 171 176 178 175 177 èbcg ó1.0 B8.8 B9.3 ó1.0 ÷9.3 ó1.0 ó1.0 GOES Sp 1060 1810 1670 1580 1640 1450 1640 mvh N 2 1 2 1 1 IMF + + +/- - - - - áóå Å>2 1.0å+7 1.5E+7 1.8E+7 2.6å+7 2.6å+7 1.3E+7 1.3E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 17 1 3 2 8 11 6 nT áÒ Dst -73 -30 -30 -19 -26 -34 -31 nT KéOTO Amsc 18 4 5 5 10 11 7 nT éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WERE NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS CHANGING FROM ACTIVE (11.11) to UNSETTLED AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru