Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 02 - 08.12.2013, Forecast on 09 - 16.12.2013, Carrington Rotation 2144 (21,73.11.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT AN AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 061+13/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OB- SERVED 7 - 5 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTI- MATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060 +30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 07.12 AND THE LOW-ON OTHER DAYS. DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD 1 GEOFFCTIVE EJECTA OF SOLAR FI- LAMENT FROM CENTRAL ZONE OF VISIBLE SOLAR DISK, WHICH IS ACCOMPA- NIED BY CME TYPE "HALO" WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONO- GRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 30 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "HA- LO" TYPE, ONE - "PARTIAL HALO III", AND 2 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 07.12 0717 0729 0812 S16W49L208 M1.2/1N 1.7E-2 11909 II/1 CME/919km/s DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 04.12 1837 2358 N28E00L188 38 CME/2312/419km/s c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH - N10L180 N07L185 S05L200 S03L202 07.12 4 G1 SDO, SOHO.... CH + N52L072 N42L060 N18L090 N23L102 14.12 4 SDO, SOHO.... CH + N13L092 N12L089 N08L092 N10L099 13.12 1 SDO, SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 26.11/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 11.12. NOVEMBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 NOVEMBER Wus 124 097 098 103 105 104 083 F10.7 134 136 138 150 151 157 166 èbcg B4.6 ÷4.9 B6.2 C1.0 C1.0 ÷9.5 ÷8.4 GOES Sp 640 570 620 510 550 510 680 mvh N 3 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 9.8å+5 1.2å+6 1.0å+6 3.6å+6 7.7å+6 4.9E+6 7.6E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 2 6 4 5 4 6 26 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 6 7 7 8 5 9 23 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET ALL DAYS EXCEPT 8. 12, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR EQUATORIAL CORO- NAL HOLE AND IN THE SAME TIME FELL UNDER DISTURBANCE OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA 4.12. HOWEVER THIS DOUBLE IMPACT CAUSED IN ENVIRONMENT JUST SUBSTORM (G2) DURATION 9 h. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND TWO SUBSTORMS (G1+G1)/6 h+6 h. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru