Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 09 - 15.12.2013, Forecast on 16 - 23.12.2013, Carrington Rotation 2144, 2145 ( 21,73.11; 19,05.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN AFTER 10.12 REMAINED AT HIGH LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=049+13/-21. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8 - 10 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF THEM WERE OF THE MIDD- LE SIZE. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVI- TY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD 3 GEOFFCTIVE (SMALL RATE) EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT, WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY CME TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 53 CME FROM WHICH ONE WERE THE "HALO" TYPE AND 6 - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 11.12 0510 0810 S38E49L047 20 CME 12.12 0304 0330 S31W41L124 15 CME 12.12 0451 0624 S32E27L065 7 CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH - N60L071 N45L052 N08L093 N40L115 14.12 4 G1 SDO, SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 26/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.12. DECEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 DECEMBER Wus 125 169 166 156 141 163 158 F10.7 168 175 171 165 163 164 156 èbcg B8.0 ÷8.6 B7.3 ÷8.0 ÷7.0 ÷6.0 ÷5.8 GOES Sp 920 1410 1350 1140 1050 1100 1060 mvh N 3 2 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 3.3å+6 4.8å+6 6.1å+6 6.2å+6 2.6å+7 1.4E+6 9.5E+5 GOES Ie>2 1019 pfu GOES Ap 4 6 3 2 3 14 5 nT áÒ Dst nT KéOTO Amsc 9 7 6 5 5 18 9 nT éúíéòáî -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OBSERVED 13.12 ONLY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET ALL DAYS EXCEPT 14.12, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HO- LE AND IN THE SAME TIME FELL UNDER DISTURBANCES OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS 11 - 12.12. HOWEVER THIS SUMMARY IMPACT CAUSED IN ENVIRONMENT JUST TWO SUBSTORMS (G0 AND G1) DURATION 6 h. EACH. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru