Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 16 - 22.12.2013, Forecast on 23 - 30.12.2013, Carrington Rotation 2144, 2145 ( 21,73.11; 19,05.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 072+11/-17. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OB- SERVED 6 - 9 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, THREE OF THEM WERE OF THE MIDD- LE SIZE. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVI- TY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 060+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 19, 20, 22.12 AND LOW LE- VEL IN OTHER DAYS. 22.12 FLARES CONFUSED OBSERVERS AND COORDINATE CAN CHANGE. DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD 4 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 39 CME FROM WHICH ONE WERE THE PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 19.12 2306 2319 >2321 S16E89L269 M3.5/ 2.1E-3 11934 20.12 1135 1157 >1207 S16E78L269 M1.6/ 1.9E-2 11934 22.12 0805 0811 <1015 S20W49L004 M1.9/SF 8.4E-3 11928 22.12 0833 0837 <1015 S17W52L004 M1.1/SF 3.6E-3 11928 22.12 1424 1438 1512 S18E44L269 M1.6/1á 1.9E-2 11934 22.12 1445 1512 1533 S19W56L004 1N/M3.3 1.6E-2 11928 22.12 2123 2208 2230 S W L M1.6/SN 1.4E-2 22.12 2344 0003 >0005 S19E79L M1.3/ 5.8E-3 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 20.12 0651 0821 N52W50L024 7 20.12 >1023 >2234 N59W05L339 10 20.12 >1023 >2234 N27E47L287 8 21.12 >1355 <0757 S31W52L345 6 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH - N60L264 N50L254 N20L294 N40L314 25.12 2 SDO, SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 21/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 13.01. DECEMBER 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 DECEMBER Wus 114 091 118 138 137 131 111 F10.7 154 159 156 153 149 144 138 èbcg B7.1 ÷8.0 B7.8 ÷8.0 C1.1 ÷7.8 ÷8.0 GOES Sp 780 760 1130 1150 1070 1100 880 mvh N 1 1 3 1 2 IMF +/- - - - - +/- + áóå Å>2 9.5å+5 2.2å+6 1.9å+6 1.5å+6 1.5å+6 1.8E+6 2.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 8 3 4 5 5 4 2 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 7 6 9 8 5 4 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NO OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru