ADDITION TO THE HIGHLIGHT FOR 06.01.20146: IN THE SECOND HALF 05.01 TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LEADING SUNSPOT OF AR11944 THERE WAS A EMERGENCE OF THE NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX, AS A RESULT WHICH WAS FORMED THE CLASTER OF SMALL SUNSPOTS AND PORES. AS A RESULT, ON JANUARY 7 IN 8 HOURS TWO LARGE FLARES WERE OCCURRENCE: 07.01 1007 1013 1124 S13E13L101 í7.2/2÷ 9.2E-2 11944 07.01 1048 1832 2054 S18W08L101 X1.2/2N 2.5E-1 11944 II/2 CME/1362km/s THE LAST FLARE THE SOURCE OF THE THIRD LARGEST FLUX FOR THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE OF THE SOLAR PROTON EVENT: Pr(>10 MeV) to 7.01/2030 UT; max 972 pfu 08/2030 UT; in progress. DISTURBANCE FROM THESE FLARES WILL REACH THE NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONMENT BY THE END OF DAYS 9.01. AND WITH PROBABILITY OF 60% WILL CAUSE THE MODE- RATE (G2) MAGNETIC STORM. HAPPY NEW YEAR 2014, YEAR OF SOLAR ACTIVITY MAXIMUM FOR CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE XXIV! šHealth, success and fulfillment of all your desires! -------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2013 HAS MADE W dec.= 77.6, THAT GIVES FOR 60 MONTH (2013, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 62.6 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XII.2013 - II 2014 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 68 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013, DECEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 90 6.. 71 11..128 16.. 83 21..102 26.. 75 31..99 2..101 7.. 65m 12..110 17.. 88 22.. 83 27.. 77 3.. 80 8.. 69 13..105 18..102 23.. 81 28.. 73 4.. 85 9..103 14.. 98 19..102 24.. 79 29.. 90 5.. 80 10..136í 15.. 98 20..104 25.. 70 30.. 73 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON 2013, DECEMBER F dec.= 147.7 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, DECEMBER Ap dec.= 4.6 The current solar cycle surely goes to the maximum on the typical to the scenario for low cycles of solar activity. This means that the magnetic fields of the Sun in the solar cycles 22-23 reconst- ructed by an era of "lowered" solar activity , all observation ru- les are restored and by the Gnevyshev-Ol' rule the next Solar Cyc- le №25 will be higher than the current, average size (W*~90-110 ). Respectively, 26 - low (W*<80), 27 - average (W*~ 80-120); 28 - low (W*< 80), 29 - average (W*~ 90-110). From 29 solar cycle the Sun again there will come the reorganization of solar magnetic fields period, but already by an era of the "increased" solar ac- tivity (1.5-2 cycle), when there are possible violations of obser- vation rules of development of solar activity. These conclusions follow from the significant number of studies of the relative sunspot number (1849 - 2014) - (Proceeding VAC 2014). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.12.2013 - 05.01.2014, Forecast on 06 - 13.01.2014, Carrington Rotation 2145 (19,05.12.2013) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE AVERAGE TO HIGH LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS- TEM WAS MADE W=080+55/-24. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSER- VED 5-8 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM WAS OF THE BIGE SIZE. AR11944, S04L097, Sp = 1470 mvh - emerged from behind the eastern limb 1.01 fully formed a large group of relatively quiet sunspots in which realized five flares of the middle classes. Despite the complex magne- tic configuration parts AO, where flares of the middle classes in gene- ral magnetic field retains a simple bipolar structure. Therefore, with- out the ascent of a new significant magnetic flux of intense flares should not be expected. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN- SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=060+30/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 31.12 AND 1.01, THE AVERAGE LEVEL 2 -4.01 AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD 5 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSER- VED 30 CME FROM WHICH TWO WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 31.12 2145 2158 2220 S16W35L223 M6.4/2N 9.1E-2 11936 óíå/2225UT 01.01 1840 1852 2137 S17W47L223 í9.9/2B 8.2å-2 11936 CME/2000UT 02.01 0224 0233 >0256 S05E76L101 M1.7/SF 2.7E-2 11944 02.01 2208 2218 2231 S05E72L101 1N/M1.2 4.3E-3 11944 03.01 1241 1250 >1254 S04E52L101 M1.0/ 5.1E-3 11944 03.01 2109 2114 2123 S06E56L101 M1.1/SF 4.0E-3 11944 04.01 1014 1025 >1041 S05E48L101 M1.3/2N 1.4E-2 11944 04.01 1905 1946 >2023 S11E34L101 M4.0/ 1.4E-1 11944 ?04.01 2209 2253 >2359 S14W90L284 M2.0/ 11931? 04.01 2212 2252 >2322 S14W89L223 M1.9/ 5.9E-2 11936 flare 04/2209 is quite uncertain, it is not clear how to select .... DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 01.01 0122 0138 S05E76L168 16 02.01 >0332 <0619 S39w24L186 18 03.01 >1044 <2226 S40E33L116 14 04.01 0033 0141 S17E67L069 5 04.01 0448 O655 N09E57L079 5 05.01 >1036 <2227 N51W07l129 10 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories óH + N20L170 N18L167 S08L188 N00L207 02.01 5 G1 SDO, SOHO.... óH - N55L060 N45L039 N28L084 N33L088 11.01 5 SDO, SOHO.... óH - N15L064 N08L054 N00L059 N18L065 12.01 2 G0 SDO, SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 21/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 13.01. DECEMBER 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 JANUARY Wus 093 136 106 133 162 178 225 F10.7 143 145 160 161 182 215 218 èbcg B6.9 ÷9.9 ó1.1 ó1.6 ó1.2 ó1.7 C1.8 GOES Sp 510 490 610 1410 1570 1710 1790 mvh N 4 1 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 6.8å+5 5.9å+5 5.5å+5 2.3å+7 3.5å+7 3.7E+7 1.5E+6 GOES Ie>2 1780 990 879 694 pfu GOES Ap 3 6 13 21 12 5 4 nT áÒ Dst -22 -28 -28 -18 nT KIOTO Amsc 5 6 17 21 12 10 nT IZMIRAN ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. MINOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT HAVE BEEN RGISTRED FROM WEST FLARES M2.0, M1.9: Pr (>10 MeV) to~4.01/24 UT; max ~8 pfu 05/~12 UT; in progress. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OBSERVED 2.01. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams=24, dur.=12 h.) AND SUDSTORM (G1, 6 h. dur.) REGISTRED ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA 1 and 2.01. ACCORDING DATA OF THE BOULDER CEN- TER IN THESE DAYS HAVE BEEN RECORDED THREE SUBSTORM, (G0, G0, G1) DU- RATIONS in 3, 6 AND 3 h. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru