Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 11 - 16.02.2014, Forecast on 17 - 24.02.2014 , Carrington Rotations 2146, 2147 (15.39.01; 11,73.02.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT HIGH LEVEL THE EN- TIRE PERIOD, EXCEPT 10 AND 16.02. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=099+19/-26. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE THE LARGE SIZE: áR11974, (S11L359, Sp max=760 ÍÄÐ, 14í) - Area of ​​sunspot groups began to increase rapidly with 12.02, but all the energy of a new magnetic flux went to flares the average classes. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT- FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=090+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL 11-14 AND 16.02, AND THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WE- RE OBSERVED 46 CME, 2 WERE THE TYPE "HALO" AND 5-“PARTIAL HALO II”. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 11.02 0314 0321 0400 S12E17L356 M1.7/ 1.2E-2 11974 CME 11.02 1634 1651 >1710 S10E08L356 M1.8/ 2.9E-2 11974 12.02 0352 0405 0818 S12W02L356 M3.7/2N 4.3E-2 11974 12.02 0654 0658 0909 S13W01L356 M2.3/2F 1.0E-2 11974 12.02 1541 1551 >1615 S10W04L356 M2.1/ 2.9E-2 11974 13.02 0016 0140 0357 S12W09L356 2F/M1.8 1.4E-2 11974 13.02 0241 0251 >0304 S11W10L356 M1.0/ 1.1E-2 11974 13.02 0549 0607 >0613 S11W11L356 M1.7/ 9.6E-3 11974 13.02 1545 1557 1615 S11W16L356 M1.4/SF 1.2E-2 11974 13.02 0805 0812 0825 S12W13L356 M1.0/1N 5.1E-3 11974 14.02 0240 0257 0357 S12W25L356 M2.3/2F 2.4E-2 11974 14.02 1229 1240 1255 S15W36L356 M1.6/1N 8.1E-3 11974 14.02 1321 1328 >1339 S12W30L356 M1.1/ 8.4E-3 11974 14.02 1633 1639 1645 S13W32L356 M1.0/SB 3.1E-3 11974 16.02 0920 0926 0934 S11E01L291 M1.1/SN 3.4E-3 11977 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 10.02 0257 0550 N32E38L326 16 10.02 0550 0741 N29E19L345 5 10.02 >0946 <0955 N07W13L017 10 11978 12.02 >0022 <1418 S32W61L346 22 13.02 >0000 <1416 S39E27L293 21 c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N50L277 N45L257 N17L325 N35L335 16.02 4 SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 14.02/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 28.02. FEBRUARY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 FEBRUARY Wus 122 151 187 157 196 162 137 F10.7 161 172 160 167 167 135 154 èbcg ó1.1 ó1.3 ó1.5 ó1.8 ó1.0 B8.3 B7.2 GOES Sp 940 1110 1260 1710 1785 1410 1410 mvh N 1 1 1 IMF - - + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 3.6å+7 3.9å+7 2.8å+7 7.6å+7 5.8å+7 4.1E+7 1.3E+5 GOES Ie>2 1302 906 678 1686 1213 1235 429 pfu GOES Ap 12 6 8 2 3 12 19 nT áÒ Dst -7 -26 nT KIOTO Amsc 12 8 7 6 7 13 19 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL OBSERVED 10, 13-15.02. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUITE AND UNSETTLED, AND ONLY IN 16.02 TWO SUBSTORM INTENSITY G1, DURATION UP TO 6 HOURS AND SPACING 15 HOURS ARE REGISTERED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru